Antequera vs Águilas result
2–0 Full time
Antequera beat Águilas 2–0 in the Copa del Rey (Round of 128) on 29 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Antequera 53%, the draw 28% and Águilas 19%.
Goals and cards
- 19' Yellow card Serpeta Águilas
- 21' Goal I. Dominguez (assist A. Gene) Antequera
- 30' Yellow card M. Bassele Antequera
- 39' Yellow card I. Dominguez Antequera
- 69' Goal A. Quintana Antequera
- 71' Yellow card Aguero Antequera
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: over 0.5 goals, 90% before kick-off
- 53%Antequera fair odds 1.90
- 28%Draw fair odds 3.56
- 19%Águilas fair odds 5.22
Most likely score 1-1 (13.3%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Antequera to score about 0.7 more and playing at home is worth roughly 32% in this competition.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Antequera
Attack 1.53 · Defence 0.63
Last five: DLDDW, scored 8, conceded 7
Águilas
Attack 1.15 · Defence 0.57
Last five: DLDLL, scored 5, conceded 10
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
- Antequera has a new coach, Abraham Paz, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
- Águilas has a new coach, Adrian Hernandez, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Antequera attack scores 53% more than average, against Águilas defence, which lets in 43% fewer than average: 1.52 goals (an average side here: 1.74)
- Águilas attack scores 15% more than average, against Antequera defence, which lets in 37% fewer than average: 0.96 goals (an average side here: 1.32)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Antequera 1.60, Águilas 0.88.
Ratings from 116 matches for Antequera and 107 for Águilas, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Águilas score 0.7 a game — 20th percentile in this competition.
- Águilas have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90% | 1.11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.22 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.20 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 9.41 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 10% | 10.10 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28% | 3.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 89% | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| Both teams to score: No | 52% | 1.93 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.3%
- 1–0 11.9%
- 2–0 10.7%
- 0–0 9.9%
- 2–1 9.4%
- 0–1 5.8%
- 3–0 5.7%
- 1–2 5.2%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 93% | 1.07 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 81% | 1.24 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 81% | 1.24 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 80% | 1.25 |
| Home/Away double chance | 72% | 1.39 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 71% | 1.41 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 59% | 1.71 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 53% | 1.90 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 47% | 2.12 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 47% | 2.12 |
| Home clean sheet | 41% | 2.41 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 29% | 3.45 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 22% | 4.53 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 22% | 4.62 |
| Away clean sheet | 20% | 4.95 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 19% | 5.22 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 7% | 14.82 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 6% | 16.71 |