Purmersteijn vs Gemert result

Goals and cards

1. 15' Yellow card Gemert
2. 94' Goal L. Tol Purmersteijn
3. 108' Penalty scored Purmersteijn
4. 108' Yellow card M. Bolhuis Gemert
5. 113' Yellow card M. Bolhuis Gemert
6. 113' Red card M. Bolhuis Gemert
7. 118' Yellow card B. Achten Gemert

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Purmersteijn to score about 0.8 more and playing at home is worth roughly 18% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (10%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Gemert has a new coach, Sjoerd van der Coelen, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Purmersteijn attack scores 6% more than average, against Gemert defence, which lets in 16% fewer than average: 2.03 goals (an average side here: 2.29)
• Gemert attack scores 11% less than average, against Purmersteijn defence, which lets in 19% fewer than average: 1.40 goals (an average side here: 1.94)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Purmersteijn 2.12, Gemert 1.30.

Ratings from 13 matches for Purmersteijn and 110 for Gemert, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Purmersteijn score 2.4 a game — 86th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 5 of Purmersteijn’s last 7.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 10.2%
2. 2–1 9.5%
3. 2–0 7.3%
4. 3–1 6.7%
5. 2–2 6.2%
6. 1–2 5.9%
7. 1–0 5.7%
8. 3–0 5.2%