De Treffers vs Heracles match stats & report

De Treffers vs Heracles match statistics

• 40% Ball possession 60%
• 13 Total shots 8
• 7 Shots on target 1
• 3 Shots off target 2
• 3 Blocked shots 5
• 8 Shots inside the box 6
• 6 Corners 6
• 10 Fouls 9
• 2 Offsides 1
• 3 Yellow cards 3
• 0 Red cards 1
• 197 Passes 306
• 68% Pass accuracy 74%
• 1 Goalkeeper saves 6

Goals and cards

1. 33' Yellow card Mario Borac Heracles
2. 35' Yellow card Migiel Zeller De Treffers
3. 50' Yellow card T. van Gilst Heracles
4. 52' Yellow card Ruben van Strien De Treffers
5. 55' Yellow card Mario Borac Heracles
6. 55' Red card Mario Borac Heracles
7. 61' Goal Sebastiaan van Bakel (assist K. Keizer) De Treffers
8. 64' Yellow card Steven van der Heijden De Treffers
9. 68' Yellow card K. Keizer De Treffers
10. 75' Yellow card S. Bultman Heracles

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last meeting: De Treffers won 0, 0 drawn, Heracles won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (10%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• De Treffers has a new coach, Theo Janssen, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Heracles has a new coach, V. Heilmann, for its last 8 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• De Treffers attack scores 44% more than average, against Heracles defence, which lets in 45% fewer than average: 1.80 goals (an average side here: 2.29)
• Heracles attack scores 61% more than average, against De Treffers defence, which lets in 42% fewer than average: 1.82 goals (an average side here: 1.94)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on De Treffers 1.80, Heracles 1.83.

Ratings from 110 matches for De Treffers and 112 for Heracles, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Heracles have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Heracles score 2.1 a game — 89th percentile in this competition.
• De Treffers score 2.4 a game — 85th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.3

De Treffers 5.9 · Heracles 4.4

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (353 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 9.9%
2. 1–2 8.0%
3. 2–1 7.9%
4. 2–2 7.2%
5. 1–3 4.9%
6. 3–1 4.7%
7. 0–2 4.5%
8. 2–3 4.4%