ACV vs AFC Amsterdam result

Goals and cards

1. 35' Yellow card Y. Hettinga ACV
2. 90+2' Yellow card ACV
3. 100' Goal T. Hovenkamp AFC Amsterdam
4. 109' Goal T. van der Werff (assist J. Oosterhof) ACV
5. 111' Yellow card S. Dijkstra ACV
6. 114' Yellow card M. Klopper AFC Amsterdam
7. 115' Goal D. Gouda AFC Amsterdam
8. 120+1' Yellow card ACV

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 5336 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• ACV has a new coach, Robin Witte, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• AFC Amsterdam has a new coach, Chedric Seedorf, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• ACV attack scores 7% more than average, against AFC Amsterdam defence, which lets in 37% fewer than average: 1.54 goals (an average side here: 2.29)
• AFC Amsterdam attack scores 15% more than average, against ACV defence, which lets in 27% fewer than average: 1.63 goals (an average side here: 1.94)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on ACV 1.53, AFC Amsterdam 1.64.

Ratings from 107 matches for ACV and 113 for AFC Amsterdam, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• AFC Amsterdam score 2 a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
• ACV score 2.2 a game — 80th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.9%
2. 1–2 8.7%
3. 2–1 8.0%
4. 2–2 6.6%
5. 0–2 5.7%
6. 0–0 5.6%
7. 0–1 5.5%
8. 1–0 5.0%