SC Braga vs Famalicao result

Goals and cards

1. 9' Yellow card G. Lagerbielke SC Braga
2. 11' Yellow card Sergio Barcia SC Braga
3. 16' Goal G. Koutsias (assist M. Pena) Famalicao
4. 35' Yellow card G. Koutsias Famalicao
5. 37' Penalty scored Ricardo Horta SC Braga
6. 45+4' Penalty scored G. Koutsias Famalicao
7. 45+5' Yellow card P. Victor SC Braga
8. 85' Yellow card F. Costa SC Braga
9. 87' Yellow card Gabriel Cabral Famalicao
10. 89' Penalty scored Ricardo Horta SC Braga

Penalty shoot-out: 1–3

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects SC Braga to score about 0.5 more.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 1875 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.13× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: SC Braga won 2, 3 drawn, Famalicao won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• SC Braga has a new coach, Franclim Carvalho, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Famalicao has a new coach, Ricardo Silva, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• SC Braga attack scores 43% more than average, against Famalicao defence, which lets in 28% fewer than average: 1.46 goals (an average side here: 1.41)
• Famalicao attack scores 15% more than average, against SC Braga defence, which lets in 26% fewer than average: 1.05 goals (an average side here: 1.25)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on SC Braga 1.51, Famalicao 1.00.

Ratings from 111 matches for SC Braga and 102 for Famalicao, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Famalicao win 5 corners a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
• 5 of the last 6 meetings went over 2.5 goals.
• SC Braga have kept 7 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.3

SC Braga 5.5 · Famalicao 3.8

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (307 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 13.8%
2. 1–0 10.7%
3. 0–0 9.7%
4. 2–0 9.3%
5. 2–1 9.3%
6. 0–1 6.5%
7. 1–2 6.1%
8. 3–0 4.7%