Baltika vs Zenit match stats & report
2–3 Full time
Baltika lost to Zenit 2–3 in the Cup (Group Stage - 5) on 29 October 2026. Baltika had 58% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Baltika 22%, the draw 29% and Zenit 49%.
Baltika vs Zenit match statistics
- 58% Ball possession 42%
- 11 Total shots 6
- 7 Shots on target 4
- 4 Shots off target 2
- 0 Blocked shots 0
- 3 Corners 6
- 2 Yellow cards 2
- 0 Red cards 0
Goals and cards
- 24' Yellow card N. Gassama Baltika
- 30' Goal D. Kondakov (assist R. Vega) Zenit
- 60' Yellow card S. Volkov Zenit
- 65' Yellow card S. Kovač Baltika
- 69' Goal Felipe Augusto Zenit
- 73' Goal I. Kirsch (assist F. Moufi) Baltika
- 83' Goal Felipe Augusto Zenit
- 90' Yellow card D. Adamov Zenit
- 90+2' Goal I. Porokhov Baltika
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: Zenit to win, 50% before kick-off
- 22%Baltika fair odds 4.54
- 29%Draw fair odds 3.50
- 49%Zenit fair odds 2.02
Most likely score 1-1 (13.6%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Zenit to score about 0.6 more.
High confidence — Fitted on 5676 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Baltika
Attack 1.73 · Defence 0.35
Last five: DDWDL, scored 5, conceded 4
Zenit
Attack 2.87 · Defence 0.32
Last five: WWWWW, scored 11, conceded 5
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.25× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 6 meetings: Baltika won 0, 1 drawn, Zenit won 5. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Baltika attack scores 73% more than average, against Zenit defence, which lets in 68% fewer than average: 1.04 goals (an average side here: 1.86)
- Zenit attack scores 187% more than average, against Baltika defence, which lets in 65% fewer than average: 1.50 goals (an average side here: 1.49)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Baltika 0.97, Zenit 1.56.
Ratings from 113 matches for Baltika and 122 for Zenit, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Zenit score 2.3 a game — 98th percentile in this competition.
- Zenit win 5.7 corners a game — 74th percentile in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in 7 of Baltika’s last 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.15 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 4.00 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 8.81 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 9% | 10.53 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26% | 3.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 89% | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| Both teams to score: No | 49% | 2.03 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 9.1
Baltika 4.1 · Zenit 5.0
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 8.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 9.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 10.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 11.5 | 22% | 78% |
Expected cards: 3.6
Baltika 1.9 · Zenit 1.7
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 4.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 5.5 | 17% | 83% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (268 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.6%
- 0–1 10.8%
- 0–2 9.7%
- 0–0 9.5%
- 1–2 9.4%
- 1–0 6.2%
- 2–1 5.9%
- 0–3 5.0%
Team news & lineups
Baltika
Bench E. Golenkov , M. Beveev , I. Petrov , L. Mouyokolo , E. Mamedov , M. Petrov , I. Kukushkin , German Iva, E. Anderson , I. Porokhov , K. Shiltsov
Zenit
Bench Maksim Zaytsev, D. Shumikhin , V. Shilov , Nino , Luiz Henrique , A. Karpukas , Stanislav Karelin, M. Glushenkov , Douglas Santos , B. Levandovskiy
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Baltika at home
3–2–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.4 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 5.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.7 per game
29% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Zenit away
8–1–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.3 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- Corners
- 5.7 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.9 per game
17% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Baltika vs Zenit head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Baltika v Zenit | 2–3 | |
| Zenit v Baltika | 1–0 | |
| Baltika v Zenit | 0–1 | |
| Zenit v Baltika | 1–0 | |
| Baltika v Zenit | 0–0 | |
| Baltika v Zenit | 1–2 |
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 92% | 1.09 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 79% | 1.27 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 78% | 1.28 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 73% | 1.36 |
| Home/Away double chance | 71% | 1.40 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 62% | 1.61 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 51% | 1.98 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 51% | 1.98 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 49% | 2.02 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 46% | 2.16 |
| Away clean sheet | 38% | 2.65 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 27% | 3.77 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 25% | 3.93 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 22% | 4.54 |
| Home clean sheet | 21% | 4.76 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 21% | 4.84 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 8% | 12.04 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 8% | 13.25 |