FC Midtjylland vs Odense result

Goals and cards

1. 27' Goal M. B. Sorensen (assist V. Bak Jensen) FC Midtjylland
2. 40' Yellow card J. Berthel Askou Odense
3. 42' Goal N. Ganaus (assist F. Arp) Odense
4. 56' Yellow card A. Suhonen Odense
5. 62' Goal S. Johannesen FC Midtjylland
6. 85' Yellow card A. Maxsø FC Midtjylland
7. 90+1' Yellow card I. Ouédraogo Odense
8. 90+3' Yellow card R. Kristensen FC Midtjylland

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects FC Midtjylland to score about 1.9 more and playing at home is worth roughly 18% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: FC Midtjylland won 4, 2 drawn, Odense won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 3-1 (8%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Odense has a new coach, T. Thomasberg, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• FC Midtjylland attack scores 277% more than average, against Odense defence, which lets in 68% fewer than average: 2.93 goals (an average side here: 2.44)
• Odense attack scores 151% more than average, against FC Midtjylland defence, which lets in 73% fewer than average: 1.42 goals (an average side here: 2.07)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on FC Midtjylland 3.13, Odense 1.22.

Ratings from 106 matches for FC Midtjylland and 103 for Odense, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• FC Midtjylland score 2.1 a game — 87th percentile in this competition.
• 5 of the last 6 meetings went over 2.5 goals.
• Odense have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.5

FC Midtjylland 6.6 · Odense 3.9

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (186 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 3–1 8.0%
2. 2–1 7.7%
3. 3–0 6.6%
4. 2–0 6.3%
5. 4–1 6.3%
6. 1–1 5.6%
7. 4–0 5.2%
8. 3–2 4.9%