Lebrijana vs Getafe result

Goals and cards

1. 9' Yellow card Saba Sazonov Getafe
2. 10' Goal Lebrijana
3. 23' Goal (assist T. Asiku) Lebrijana
4. 30' Yellow card Davinchi Getafe
5. 32' Yellow card Lebrijana
6. 39' Yellow card Lebrijana
7. 45' Goal A. Abqar Getafe
8. 45+2' Goal B. Mayoral Getafe
9. 68' Goal O. Mangala (assist Kiko Femenia) Getafe
10. 75' Yellow card O. Mangala Getafe

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Getafe to score about 2.4 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 26747 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Lebrijana has had 22 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 0-2 (16%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Getafe has a new coach, Pepe Bordalás, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Lebrijana attack scores 16% less than average, against Getafe defence, which lets in 61% fewer than average: 0.57 goals (an average side here: 1.74)
• Getafe attack scores 55% more than average, against Lebrijana defence, which lets in 29% more than average: 2.64 goals (an average side here: 1.32)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Lebrijana 0.39, Getafe 2.82.

Ratings from 2 matches for Lebrijana and 125 for Getafe, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Getafe have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Getafe score 0.6 a game — 17th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–2 16.1%
2. 0–3 15.2%
3. 0–1 10.8%
4. 0–4 10.7%
5. 1–2 6.2%
6. 0–5 6.0%
7. 1–3 5.8%
8. 1–1 5.0%