Kozakken Boys vs Utrecht match stats & report

Kozakken Boys vs Utrecht match statistics

• 47% Ball possession 53%
• 15 Total shots 8
• 3 Shots on target 3
• 7 Shots off target 2
• 5 Blocked shots 3
• 7 Shots inside the box 4
• 5 Corners 8
• 13 Fouls 11
• 2 Offsides 0
• 367 Passes 405
• 82% Pass accuracy 82%
• 2 Goalkeeper saves 3

Goals and cards

1. 38' Goal N. Panagiotou (assist O. Agougil) Utrecht

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Utrecht to score about 1.5 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 5336 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-2 (10%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Kozakken Boys has a new coach, E. Grünholz, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Kozakken Boys attack scores 10% more than average, against Utrecht defence, which lets in 57% fewer than average: 1.08 goals (an average side here: 2.29)
• Utrecht attack scores 92% more than average, against Kozakken Boys defence, which lets in 38% fewer than average: 2.31 goals (an average side here: 1.94)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Kozakken Boys 0.92, Utrecht 2.47.

Ratings from 115 matches for Kozakken Boys and 114 for Utrecht, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Utrecht win 5 corners a game — 76th percentile in this competition.
• Utrecht score 1.3 a game — 30th percentile in this competition.
• Kozakken Boys have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–2 10.2%
2. 1–2 9.5%
3. 1–1 8.6%
4. 0–3 8.4%
5. 1–3 7.8%
6. 0–1 7.3%
7. 0–4 5.2%
8. 1–4 4.8%