Eskişehirspor vs Iğdır FK result

Goals and cards

1. 90+7' Goal K. Baykus Eskişehirspor

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Eskişehirspor to score about 0.3 more and playing at home is worth roughly 22% in this competition.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.22× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Iğdır FK has a new coach, K. Kocak, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Eskişehirspor attack scores 42% more than average, against Iğdır FK defence, which lets in 39% fewer than average: 1.54 goals (an average side here: 1.78)
• Iğdır FK attack scores 32% more than average, against Eskişehirspor defence, which lets in 31% fewer than average: 1.32 goals (an average side here: 1.46)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Eskişehirspor 1.57, Iğdır FK 1.29.

Ratings from 45 matches for Eskişehirspor and 128 for Iğdır FK, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Eskişehirspor score 2.7 a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
• Iğdır FK score 1.5 a game — 72nd percentile in this competition.
• Eskişehirspor have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 13.1%
2. 2–1 9.1%
3. 1–0 7.5%
4. 1–2 7.5%
5. 0–0 7.3%
6. 2–0 7.1%
7. 0–1 5.9%
8. 2–2 5.9%