Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz result
3–2 Full time
Austria Lustenau stats & fixtures · Sturm Graz stats & fixtures
Austria Lustenau beat Sturm Graz 3–2 in the Cup (Round of 16) on 29 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Austria Lustenau 11%, the draw 19% and Sturm Graz 70%.
Goals and cards
- 16' Goal L. Jastremski (assist F. Gmeiner) Austria Lustenau
- 26' Goal D. Weixelbraun (assist L. Jastremski) Austria Lustenau
- 33' Yellow card P. Grabher Austria Lustenau
- 35' Goal P. Petrović (assist L. Balbo) Sturm Graz
- 51' Yellow card V. Matoshi Sturm Graz
- 54' Yellow card L. Jastremski Austria Lustenau
- 56' Yellow card P. Petrović Sturm Graz
- 58' Yellow card L. Balbo Sturm Graz
- 65' Goal L. Jastremski Austria Lustenau
- 67' Yellow card J. Quarshie Sturm Graz
- 76' Yellow card S. Diarra Austria Lustenau
- 80' Goal S. Seidl (assist P. Koller) Sturm Graz
- 86' Yellow card M. Maak Austria Lustenau
- 90+1' Yellow card Austria Lustenau
- 90+3' Yellow card O. Diakité Sturm Graz
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Missed: Sturm Graz to win, 70% before kick-off
- 11%Austria Lustenau fair odds 8.86
- 19%Draw fair odds 5.36
- 70%Sturm Graz fair odds 1.43
Most likely score 0-2 (10.1%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Sturm Graz to score about 1.5 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.
High confidence — Fitted on 8894 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Austria Lustenau
Attack 1.49 · Defence 0.48
Last five: LLLLW, scored 6, conceded 14
Sturm Graz
Attack 2.79 · Defence 0.35
Last five: DWWLW, scored 11, conceded 6
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.24× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 3 meetings: Austria Lustenau won 0, 1 drawn, Sturm Graz won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 0-2 (10%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Austria Lustenau attack scores 49% more than average, against Sturm Graz defence, which lets in 65% fewer than average: 1.10 goals (an average side here: 2.14)
- Sturm Graz attack scores 179% more than average, against Austria Lustenau defence, which lets in 52% fewer than average: 2.32 goals (an average side here: 1.73)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Austria Lustenau 0.94, Sturm Graz 2.48.
Ratings from 97 matches for Austria Lustenau and 107 for Sturm Graz, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Sturm Graz win 5.6 corners a game — 92nd percentile in this competition.
- Austria Lustenau score 1.1 a game — 19th percentile in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in 3 of Austria Lustenau’s last 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 1.51 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 26% | 3.85 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4% | 23.49 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13% | 7.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.98 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| Both teams to score: No | 43% | 2.32 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.7
Austria Lustenau 4.2 · Sturm Graz 6.5
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 9.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 10.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 11.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 12.5 | 29% | 71% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (190 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 0–2 10.1%
- 1–2 9.5%
- 1–1 8.6%
- 0–3 8.3%
- 1–3 7.8%
- 0–1 7.1%
- 0–4 5.2%
- 1–4 4.9%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Austria Lustenau at home
5–2–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 5.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.0 per game
9% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Sturm Graz away
3–2–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.3 per game
- Conceded
- 1.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 5.6 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.6 per game
31% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz v Austria Lustenau | 1–1 | |
| Sturm Graz v Austria Lustenau | 2–0 | |
| Austria Lustenau v Sturm Graz | 0–1 |
Only 3 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 96% | 1.04 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 92% | 1.09 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 89% | 1.13 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 89% | 1.13 |
| Home/Away double chance | 81% | 1.23 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 71% | 1.41 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 70% | 1.43 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 61% | 1.64 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 51% | 1.96 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 49% | 2.04 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 45% | 2.22 |
| Away clean sheet | 39% | 2.56 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 30% | 3.34 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 30% | 3.34 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 24% | 4.13 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 11% | 8.86 |
| Home clean sheet | 8% | 11.96 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 7% | 14.38 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 4% | 25.43 |