CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv match stats & report

CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv match statistics

• 59% Ball possession 41%
• 10 Total shots 3
• 6 Shots on target 2
• 4 Shots off target 1
• 0 Blocked shots 0
• 5 Corners 5
• 2 Yellow cards 4
• 0 Red cards 0

Goals and cards

1. 4' Yellow card A. Kovalenko Lokomotiv
2. 6' Goal D. Kozlov (assist I. Oblyakov) CSKA Moscow
3. 9' Yellow card Lucas Fasson Lokomotiv
4. 17' Goal Joao Victor (assist I. Oblyakov) CSKA Moscow
5. 32' Yellow card Matheus Alves CSKA Moscow
6. 38' Goal A. Kovalenko Lokomotiv
7. 66' Own goal G. Dzhikiya CSKA Moscow
8. 81' Yellow card D. Godyaev Lokomotiv
9. 89' Yellow card G. Dzhikiya Lokomotiv
10. 90+3' Yellow card T. Musaev CSKA Moscow

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects CSKA Moscow to score about 0.8 more and playing at home is worth roughly 25% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 5676 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.25× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: CSKA Moscow won 3, 1 drawn, Lokomotiv won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (11%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• CSKA Moscow attack scores 137% more than average, against Lokomotiv defence, which lets in 56% fewer than average: 1.94 goals (an average side here: 1.86)
• Lokomotiv attack scores 148% more than average, against CSKA Moscow defence, which lets in 63% fewer than average: 1.35 goals (an average side here: 1.49)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on CSKA Moscow 2.02, Lokomotiv 1.27.

Ratings from 120 matches for CSKA Moscow and 113 for Lokomotiv, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• CSKA Moscow score 2 a game — 85th percentile in this competition.
• CSKA Moscow win 5.3 corners a game — 71st percentile in this competition.
• Lokomotiv have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.2

CSKA Moscow 4.8 · Lokomotiv 4.4

Expected cards: 4.1

CSKA Moscow 1.6 · Lokomotiv 2.5

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (268 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 10.8%
2. 2–1 9.7%
3. 2–0 7.6%
4. 3–1 6.5%
5. 1–0 6.3%
6. 2–2 6.1%
7. 1–2 6.1%
8. 3–0 5.1%