Concordia vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe result

Goals and cards

1. 4' Yellow card D. Ghindovean Concordia
2. 34' Goal A. Gualda Concordia
3. 63' Goal Nacho Heras Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
4. 65' Yellow card Concordia
5. 80' Yellow card M. Balasa Concordia

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and playing at home is worth roughly 27% in this competition.

High confidence — Fitted on 6192 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.27× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Concordia has a new coach, Adrian Scarlatache, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Concordia attack scores 65% more than average, against Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence, which lets in 59% fewer than average: 1.51 goals (an average side here: 2.22)
• Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack scores 44% more than average, against Concordia defence, which lets in 43% fewer than average: 1.44 goals (an average side here: 1.75)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Concordia 1.52, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1.43.

Ratings from 89 matches for Concordia and 93 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe score 0.5 a game — 2nd percentile in this competition.
• Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win 2.8 corners a game — 26th percentile in this competition.
• Concordia score 2 a game — 72nd percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.9%
2. 2–1 8.6%
3. 1–2 8.1%
4. 0–0 6.7%
5. 1–0 6.5%
6. 2–2 6.2%
7. 2–0 6.0%
8. 0–1 6.0%