Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala match stats & report

Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala match statistics

• 59% Ball possession 41%
• 8 Total shots 9
• 5 Shots on target 3
• 3 Shots off target 6
• 0 Blocked shots 0
• 4 Corners 1
• 2 Yellow cards 1
• 0 Red cards 0

Goals and cards

1. 32' Goal A. Rahmanović Krylia Sovetov
2. 56' Yellow card I. Chesnokov Krylia Sovetov
3. 60' Yellow card V. Khubulov Dinamo Makhachkala
4. 64' Yellow card Fernando Costanza Krylia Sovetov
5. 68' Goal M. Banjac Krylia Sovetov

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Krylia Sovetov to score about 0.6 more and playing at home is worth roughly 25% in this competition.

High confidence — Fitted on 5675 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.25× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Krylia Sovetov won 2, 1 drawn, Dinamo Makhachkala won 3. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Krylia Sovetov attack scores 97% more than average, against Dinamo Makhachkala defence, which lets in 56% fewer than average: 1.62 goals (an average side here: 1.86)
• Dinamo Makhachkala attack scores 52% more than average, against Krylia Sovetov defence, which lets in 48% fewer than average: 1.18 goals (an average side here: 1.49)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Krylia Sovetov 1.69, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.11.

Ratings from 103 matches for Krylia Sovetov and 110 for Dinamo Makhachkala, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Dinamo Makhachkala have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Krylia Sovetov have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Dinamo Makhachkala win 3 corners a game — 31st percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.3

Krylia Sovetov 4.8 · Dinamo Makhachkala 4.5

Expected cards: 3.8

Krylia Sovetov 1.4 · Dinamo Makhachkala 2.4

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (268 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.9%
2. 2–1 9.6%
3. 1–0 8.8%
4. 2–0 8.7%
5. 0–0 7.6%
6. 1–2 6.4%
7. 3–1 5.4%
8. 2–2 5.4%