Avia Świdnik vs Radomiak Radom result

Goals and cards

1. 25' Goal A. Tapsoba (assist Elves) Radomiak Radom
2. 76' Yellow card Adrián Diéguez Radomiak Radom
3. 90+5' Penalty scored G. Aftyka Avia Świdnik
4. 114' Goal K. Welniak Avia Świdnik

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Radomiak Radom to score about 0.3 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.20× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (11%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Radomiak Radom has a new coach, John Carver, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Avia Świdnik attack scores 23% more than average, against Radomiak Radom defence, which lets in 32% fewer than average: 1.53 goals (an average side here: 1.84)
• Radomiak Radom attack scores 45% more than average, against Avia Świdnik defence, which lets in 20% fewer than average: 1.76 goals (an average side here: 1.53)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Avia Świdnik 1.49, Radomiak Radom 1.80.

Ratings from 108 matches for Avia Świdnik and 105 for Radomiak Radom, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Radomiak Radom score 1 a game — 26th percentile in this competition.
• Avia Świdnik have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.
• Radomiak Radom have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.3%
2. 1–2 9.0%
3. 2–1 7.5%
4. 2–2 6.7%
5. 0–2 6.0%
6. 0–1 5.4%
7. 1–3 5.4%
8. 0–0 5.0%