Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants result
1–0 Full time
Mamelodi Sundowns stats & fixtures · Marumo Gallants stats & fixtures
Mamelodi Sundowns beat Marumo Gallants 1–0 in the Carling Knockout (Round of 16) on 27 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Mamelodi Sundowns 86%, the draw 11% and Marumo Gallants 3%.
Goals and cards
- 17' Yellow card F. Basadien Mamelodi Sundowns
- 20' Goal S. Mthanti (assist I. Rayners) Mamelodi Sundowns
- 22' Yellow card T. Cele Mamelodi Sundowns
- 33' Yellow card N. Ndlondlo Marumo Gallants
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: over 0.5 goals, 96% before kick-off
- 86%Mamelodi Sundowns fair odds 1.16
- 11%Draw fair odds 8.93
- 3%Marumo Gallants fair odds 36.10
Most likely score 2-0 (15.5%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Mamelodi Sundowns to score about 2.4 more and playing at home is worth roughly 30% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Mamelodi Sundowns
Attack 2.04 · Defence 0.66
Last five: DDWWW, scored 9, conceded 3
Marumo Gallants
Attack 0.93 · Defence 1.00
Last five: LLLDL, scored 5, conceded 10
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.30× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 6 meetings: Mamelodi Sundowns won 4, 2 drawn, Marumo Gallants won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
- Marumo Gallants has had 6 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 2-0 (15%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
- Marumo Gallants has a new coach, R. Kanalelo, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Mamelodi Sundowns attack scores 104% more than average, against Marumo Gallants defence, which lets in about the average: 2.65 goals (an average side here: 1.29)
- Marumo Gallants attack scores 7% less than average, against Mamelodi Sundowns defence, which lets in 34% fewer than average: 0.61 goals (an average side here: 1.00)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Mamelodi Sundowns 2.84, Marumo Gallants 0.42.
Ratings from 104 matches for Mamelodi Sundowns and 92 for Marumo Gallants, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Marumo Gallants have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
- Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.2 a game — 94th percentile in this competition.
- Mamelodi Sundowns win 6.2 corners a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.58 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 2.44 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 23% | 4.36 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4% | 22.50 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16% | 6.33 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.72 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 33% | 3.04 |
| Both teams to score: No | 67% | 1.49 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 15.5%
- 3–0 14.6%
- 4–0 10.4%
- 1–0 10.3%
- 2–1 6.5%
- 3–1 6.2%
- 5–0 5.9%
- 1–1 5.2%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Mamelodi Sundowns at home
7–2–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.2 per game
- Conceded
- 0.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 6.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 7.8 per game
30% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Marumo Gallants away
1–2–7 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- Corners
- 3.7 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.1 per game
50% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mamelodi Sundowns v Marumo Gallants | 2–0 | |
| Mamelodi Sundowns v Marumo Gallants | 3–1 | |
| Mamelodi Sundowns v Marumo Gallants | 0–0 | |
| Marumo Gallants v Mamelodi Sundowns | 1–1 | |
| Marumo Gallants v Mamelodi Sundowns | 1–3 | |
| Marumo Gallants v Mamelodi Sundowns | 0–2 |
The full Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants head-to-head record
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 99% | 1.01 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 97% | 1.03 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 97% | 1.03 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 94% | 1.06 |
| Home/Away double chance | 89% | 1.13 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 86% | 1.16 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 78% | 1.29 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 68% | 1.48 |
| Home clean sheet | 66% | 1.52 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 54% | 1.85 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 34% | 2.91 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 14% | 7.16 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 14% | 7.16 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 7% | 14.88 |
| Away clean sheet | 6% | 17.06 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 3% | 36.10 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 1% | 110.03 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 1% | 175.75 |