Kaizer Chiefs vs TS Galaxy result

Goals and cards

1. 6' Yellow card Seluleko Mahlambi TS Galaxy
2. 7' Yellow card W. Duba Kaizer Chiefs
3. 26' Yellow card V. Zulu TS Galaxy
4. 48' Goal W. Duba (assist P. Mmodi) Kaizer Chiefs
5. 53' Yellow card V. Letsoalo TS Galaxy
6. 56' Yellow card L. Maboe Kaizer Chiefs
7. 62' Penalty missed Mfundo Vilakazi (assist Mfundo Vilakazi) Kaizer Chiefs
8. 63' Goal W. Duba Kaizer Chiefs
9. 66' Goal W. Duba (assist M. Shabalala) Kaizer Chiefs
10. 67' Yellow card Lennol Mathebula TS Galaxy

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Kaizer Chiefs to score about 0.8 more and playing at home is worth roughly 30% in this competition.

High confidence — Fitted on 1490 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.30× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Kaizer Chiefs won 1, 4 drawn, TS Galaxy won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• TS Galaxy has had 10 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-0 (15%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Kaizer Chiefs has a new coach, F. Da Cruz, for its last 9 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• TS Galaxy has a new coach, Bernard Parker, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Kaizer Chiefs attack scores 18% more than average, against TS Galaxy defence, which lets in 7% fewer than average: 1.43 goals (an average side here: 1.29)
• TS Galaxy attack scores 9% more than average, against Kaizer Chiefs defence, which lets in 25% fewer than average: 0.81 goals (an average side here: 1.00)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Kaizer Chiefs 1.52, TS Galaxy 0.72.

Ratings from 90 matches for Kaizer Chiefs and 98 for TS Galaxy, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• TS Galaxy win 2.9 corners a game — 12th percentile in this competition.
• TS Galaxy score 0.7 a game — 12th percentile in this competition.
• 1 of the last 6 meetings went over 2.5 goals.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–0 14.6%
2. 1–1 13.2%
3. 2–0 12.2%
4. 0–0 12.2%
5. 2–1 8.9%
6. 0–1 6.2%
7. 3–0 6.2%
8. 3–1 4.5%