Sportivo Luqueno vs Deportivo Recoleta result

Goals and cards

1. 19' Red card F. Wiechniak Sportivo Luqueno
2. 27' Yellow card B. Medina Deportivo Recoleta
3. 32' Yellow card P. Rios Deportivo Recoleta
4. 62' Goal R. Martino Deportivo Recoleta
5. 63' Yellow card Deportivo Recoleta
6. 70' Goal A. González Deportivo Recoleta
7. 78' Yellow card N. Marotta Deportivo Recoleta
8. 85' Yellow card T. Muro Sportivo Luqueno

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.13× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Sportivo Luqueno won 4, 2 drawn, Deportivo Recoleta won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Sportivo Luqueno has a new coach, Lucas Barrios, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Sportivo Luqueno attack scores 27% more than average, against Deportivo Recoleta defence, which lets in 42% fewer than average: 1.44 goals (an average side here: 1.94)
• Deportivo Recoleta attack scores 56% more than average, against Sportivo Luqueno defence, which lets in 41% fewer than average: 1.57 goals (an average side here: 1.71)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Sportivo Luqueno 1.42, Deportivo Recoleta 1.59.

Ratings from 137 matches for Sportivo Luqueno and 117 for Deportivo Recoleta, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Sportivo Luqueno have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Sportivo Luqueno score 0.9 a game — 20th percentile in this competition.
• Deportivo Recoleta score 1 a game — 36th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.5

Sportivo Luqueno 5.3 · Deportivo Recoleta 4.2

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (237 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.6%
2. 1–2 8.9%
3. 2–1 7.9%
4. 0–1 6.4%
5. 0–0 6.4%
6. 2–2 6.3%
7. 0–2 6.2%
8. 1–0 5.6%