FAR Rabat vs Ittihad Tanger match stats & report

FAR Rabat vs Ittihad Tanger match statistics

• 64% Ball possession 36%
• 19 Total shots 2
• 10 Shots on target 2
• 9 Shots off target 0
• 0 Blocked shots 0
• 8 Corners 2
• 4 Yellow cards 1
• 0 Red cards 1

Goals and cards

1. 11' Yellow card Akram El Wahabi Ittihad Tanger
2. 30' Yellow card Fallou Formose Mendy FAR Rabat
3. 33' Yellow card B. Elouadghiri Ittihad Tanger
4. 35' Penalty missed Y. Elfahli FAR Rabat
5. 52' Red card G. Mohutsiwa Ittihad Tanger
6. 80' Penalty scored Y. Elfahli FAR Rabat
7. 87' Yellow card N. Lougmani FAR Rabat
8. 90+4' Yellow card FAR Rabat
9. 90+6' Goal FAR Rabat
10. 90+6' Yellow card FAR Rabat

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects FAR Rabat to score about 0.6 more and this competition has almost no home advantage.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.06× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• FAR Rabat’s last five moved its expected goals by +1.3%. In the numbers
• Ittihad Tanger’s last five moved its expected goals by +2.5%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: FAR Rabat won 1, 3 drawn, Ittihad Tanger won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Ittihad Tanger has had 11 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• FAR Rabat’s last five run against its rating: +0.2 a match scored, +0.9 conceded. Weighed as measured on 15,577 matches: +1.3% to its expected goals. In the numbers
• FAR Rabat has a new coach, Pedro Soares Gonçalves, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• FAR Rabat attack scores 28% more than average, against Ittihad Tanger defence, which lets in 4% fewer than average: 1.43 goals (an average side here: 1.16)
• Ittihad Tanger attack scores about the average, against FAR Rabat defence, which lets in 19% fewer than average: 0.90 goals (an average side here: 1.09)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on FAR Rabat 1.45, Ittihad Tanger 0.90.

Ratings from 62 matches for FAR Rabat and 64 for Ittihad Tanger, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• FAR Rabat score 1.6 a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• FAR Rabat win 8 corners a game — 94th percentile in this competition.
• Ittihad Tanger win 1.5 corners a game — 6th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected cards: 4.7

FAR Rabat 2.3 · Ittihad Tanger 2.4

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (105 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 13.4%
2. 1–0 13.2%
3. 0–0 10.5%
4. 2–0 10.2%
5. 2–1 9.5%
6. 0–1 7.1%
7. 1–2 5.4%
8. 3–0 4.7%