Xerez vs Cadiz result
1–3 Full time
Xerez lost to Cadiz 1–3 in the Copa del Rey (Round of 128) on 29 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Xerez 28%, the draw 35% and Cadiz 37%.
Goals and cards
- 2' Goal J. Lopez (assist R. Mesa) Xerez
- 22' Yellow card T. Asiku Xerez
- 25' Goal Cristian Gutiérrez Cadiz
- 60' Goal Álvaro García Cadiz
- 65' Yellow card Ibon Sánchez Cadiz
- 77' Yellow card Damián Rodríguez Cadiz
- 84' Goal Borja Vazquez Cadiz
- 90+1' Yellow card F. Chacartegui Xerez
- 90+2' Yellow card Borja Vazquez Cadiz
- 90+3' Yellow card J. Diaz Peregrina Cadiz
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: Cadiz or a draw, 72% before kick-off
- 28%Xerez fair odds 3.54
- 35%Draw fair odds 2.84
- 37%Cadiz fair odds 2.73
Most likely score 0-0 (16.7%)
Why the Ghost says this
The two sides are expected to score about the same. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Xerez
Attack 0.96 · Defence 0.50
Last five: WLDWL, scored 4, conceded 4
Cadiz
Attack 1.54 · Defence 0.53
Last five: WLLWD, scored 8, conceded 5
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last meeting: Xerez won 0, 1 drawn, Cadiz won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 0-0 (17%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
- Cadiz has a new coach, Borja Jiménez, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Xerez attack scores 4% less than average, against Cadiz defence, which lets in 47% fewer than average: 0.89 goals (an average side here: 1.74)
- Cadiz attack scores 54% more than average, against Xerez defence, which lets in 50% fewer than average: 1.01 goals (an average side here: 1.32)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Xerez 0.87, Cadiz 1.03.
Ratings from 104 matches for Xerez and 128 for Cadiz, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Cadiz score 2 a game — 94th percentile in this competition.
- Xerez score 0.7 a game — 7th percentile in this competition.
- Cadiz win 3.1 corners a game — 16th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 8.00 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 4% | 22.76 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 17% | 5.98 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 42% | 2.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 88% | 1.14 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 96% | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 39% | 2.56 |
| Both teams to score: No | 61% | 1.64 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 0–0 16.7%
- 1–1 15.1%
- 0–1 13.7%
- 1–0 11.3%
- 0–2 7.9%
- 1–2 6.9%
- 2–1 5.8%
- 2–0 5.7%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Xerez at home
3–3–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.7 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Cadiz away
2–4–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.0 per game
- Conceded
- 1.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 3.1 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.0 per game
30% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Xerez vs Cadiz head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Xerez v Cadiz | 0–0 |
Only 1 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 90% | 1.11 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 85% | 1.18 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 72% | 1.39 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 72% | 1.39 |
| Home/Away double chance | 65% | 1.54 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 64% | 1.56 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 63% | 1.58 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 63% | 1.58 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 58% | 1.72 |
| Away clean sheet | 42% | 2.39 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 37% | 2.73 |
| Home clean sheet | 36% | 2.79 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 28% | 3.54 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 27% | 3.64 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 22% | 4.61 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 15% | 6.69 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 10% | 9.86 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 9% | 11.70 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 6% | 17.21 |