Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen match stats & report

Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen match statistics

• 27% Ball possession 73%
• 7 Total shots 12
• 2 Shots on target 7
• 1 Shots off target 3
• 4 Blocked shots 2
• 3 Shots inside the box 8
• 4 Corners 2
• 16 Fouls 7
• 2 Offsides 2
• 3 Yellow cards 1
• 208 Passes 564
• 61% Pass accuracy 88%
• 5 Goalkeeper saves 2

Goals and cards

1. 51' Yellow card Wouter Vermeer Excelsior Maassluis
2. 61' Yellow card Yousef Al Abd Al Hamd Excelsior Maassluis
3. 63' Goal D. Vente (assist J. Trenskow) Heerenveen
4. 75' Goal J. Trenskow Heerenveen
5. 78' Yellow card Kevin Ringeling Excelsior Maassluis
6. 81' Yellow card M. Hilgers Heerenveen

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Heerenveen to score about 1.6 more.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 5327 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-2 (12%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Excelsior Maassluis has a new coach, Geert-Arend Roorda, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Heerenveen has a new coach, R. Veldeman, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Excelsior Maassluis attack scores 10% less than average, against Heerenveen defence, which lets in 56% fewer than average: 0.92 goals (an average side here: 2.30)
• Heerenveen attack scores 85% more than average, against Excelsior Maassluis defence, which lets in 38% fewer than average: 2.23 goals (an average side here: 1.95)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Excelsior Maassluis 0.76, Heerenveen 2.39.

Ratings from 123 matches for Excelsior Maassluis and 113 for Heerenveen, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Heerenveen score 2 a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
• Excelsior Maassluis score 2.2 a game — 80th percentile in this competition.
• Excelsior Maassluis win 4 corners a game — 31st percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–2 12.3%
2. 0–3 9.8%
3. 1–2 9.3%
4. 0–1 9.2%
5. 1–1 8.8%
6. 1–3 7.4%
7. 0–4 5.9%
8. 0–0 5.3%