Liverpool vs Chelsea match stats & report

Liverpool vs Chelsea match statistics

• 52% Ball possession 48%
• 2.19 Expected goals (xG) 1.88
• 10 Total shots 11
• 4 Shots on target 4
• 1 Shots off target 4
• 5 Blocked shots 3
• 8 Shots inside the box 8
• 7 Corners 5
• 12 Fouls 9
• 1 Offsides 3
• 2 Yellow cards 2
• 0 Red cards 0
• 441 Passes 422
• 3 Goalkeeper saves 3

Goals and cards

1. 11' Yellow card L. Koumas Liverpool
2. 21' Yellow card James McConnell Liverpool
3. 40' Penalty scored M. Rogers Chelsea
4. 43' Penalty scored C. Gakpo Liverpool
5. 50' Yellow card Joshua Kofi Acheampong Chelsea
6. 73' Yellow card R. Lavia Chelsea

Penalty shoot-out: 6–5

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Liverpool to score about 0.6 more and playing at home is worth roughly 20% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 30566 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.20× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Liverpool won 3, 1 drawn, Chelsea won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 2-1 (8%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Liverpool attack scores 311% more than average, against Chelsea defence, which lets in 71% fewer than average: 2.38 goals (an average side here: 1.99)
• Chelsea attack scores 319% more than average, against Liverpool defence, which lets in 73% fewer than average: 1.90 goals (an average side here: 1.67)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Liverpool 2.45, Chelsea 1.83.

Ratings from 136 matches for Liverpool and 140 for Chelsea, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Chelsea have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Chelsea win 5.4 corners a game — 74th percentile in this competition.
• Liverpool score 1.4 a game — 33rd percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.9

Liverpool 6.1 · Chelsea 4.8

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (2250 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–1 7.6%
2. 1–1 7.0%
3. 2–2 7.0%
4. 3–1 6.2%
5. 3–2 5.7%
6. 1–2 5.7%
7. 2–3 4.2%
8. 2–0 4.2%