Sunderland vs Brentford match stats & report

Sunderland vs Brentford match statistics

• 33% Ball possession 67%
• 2.41 Expected goals (xG) 2.77
• 7 Total shots 16
• 4 Shots on target 7
• 2 Shots off target 6
• 1 Blocked shots 3
• 7 Shots inside the box 13
• 0 Corners 5
• 8 Fouls 18
• 0 Offsides 3
• 1 Yellow cards 3
• 0 Red cards 0
• 303 Passes 589
• 4 Goalkeeper saves 0

Goals and cards

1. 26' Goal C. Talbi Sunderland
2. 29' Goal Timur Tuterov (assist J. Ta Bi) Sunderland
3. 39' Goal M. Fofana (assist J. Ta Bi) Sunderland
4. 42' Goal C. Wilson (assist V. Janelt) Brentford
5. 74' Yellow card K. Schade Brentford
6. 83' Yellow card V. Janelt Brentford
7. 85' Yellow card J. Schuster Brentford
8. 89' Yellow card C. Rigg Sunderland
9. 90+4' Goal Thiago (assist M. Jensen) Brentford

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Brentford to score about 0.7 more.

High confidence — Fitted on 30566 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.20× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 3 meetings: Sunderland won 1, 1 drawn, Brentford won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Sunderland attack scores 113% more than average, against Brentford defence, which lets in 71% fewer than average: 1.22 goals (an average side here: 1.99)
• Brentford attack scores 256% more than average, against Sunderland defence, which lets in 71% fewer than average: 1.73 goals (an average side here: 1.67)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Sunderland 1.15, Brentford 1.80.

Ratings from 133 matches for Sunderland and 126 for Brentford, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Brentford have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Brentford score 2.1 a game — 98th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 9 of Brentford’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.4

Sunderland 5.5 · Brentford 5.0

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (2250 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.2%
2. 1–2 9.8%
3. 0–2 8.5%
4. 0–1 8.0%
5. 0–0 6.6%
6. 2–1 6.2%
7. 1–3 5.9%
8. 2–2 5.6%