Fulham vs Crystal Palace match stats & report

Fulham vs Crystal Palace match statistics

• 74% Ball possession 26%
• 1.57 Expected goals (xG) 0.58
• 14 Total shots 4
• 4 Shots on target 3
• 4 Shots off target 1
• 6 Blocked shots 0
• 11 Shots inside the box 3
• 9 Corners 0
• 11 Fouls 12
• 0 Offsides 2
• 1 Yellow cards 2
• 0 Red cards 0
• 787 Passes 280
• 2 Goalkeeper saves 4

Goals and cards

1. 19' Yellow card S. Berge Fulham
2. 37' Goal E. Nketiah (assist Óscar Mingueza) Crystal Palace
3. 50' Yellow card J. Lerma Crystal Palace
4. 63' Yellow card E. Guessand Crystal Palace

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Fulham to score about 0.4 more and playing at home is worth roughly 20% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 30566 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.20× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Fulham won 0, 1 drawn, Crystal Palace won 5. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Fulham attack scores 192% more than average, against Crystal Palace defence, which lets in 70% fewer than average: 1.75 goals (an average side here: 1.99)
• Crystal Palace attack scores 199% more than average, against Fulham defence, which lets in 72% fewer than average: 1.41 goals (an average side here: 1.67)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Fulham 1.80, Crystal Palace 1.36.

Ratings from 132 matches for Fulham and 127 for Crystal Palace, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Crystal Palace win 1.9 corners a game — 1st percentile in this competition.
• Fulham win 7.4 corners a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
• Fulham score 1.3 a game — 24th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.8

Fulham 6.5 · Crystal Palace 4.2

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (2250 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.7%
2. 2–1 9.3%
3. 1–2 7.1%
4. 2–0 6.8%
5. 2–2 6.4%
6. 1–0 6.3%
7. 3–1 5.6%
8. 0–0 5.6%