Bournemouth vs Aston Villa match stats & report

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa match statistics

• 49% Ball possession 51%
• 2.75 Expected goals (xG) 1.67
• 19 Total shots 17
• 7 Shots on target 5
• 10 Shots off target 7
• 2 Blocked shots 5
• 16 Shots inside the box 13
• 6 Corners 2
• 13 Fouls 15
• 4 Offsides 1
• 3 Yellow cards 3
• 0 Red cards 0
• 456 Passes 486
• 5 Goalkeeper saves 4

Goals and cards

1. 7' Goal A. Adli (assist J. Soler) Bournemouth
2. 12' Yellow card E. Buendía Aston Villa
3. 16' Yellow card J. Sanchez Bournemouth
4. 25' Yellow card B. Doak Bournemouth
5. 33' Yellow card B. Madjo Aston Villa
6. 51' Goal L. Cook (assist B. Doak) Bournemouth
7. 54' Yellow card Joao Gomes Aston Villa
8. 67' Yellow card L. Cook Bournemouth
9. 69' Goal Á. Rodríguez (assist T. Adams) Bournemouth

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Bournemouth to score about 0.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 20% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 30566 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.20× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Bournemouth won 0, 3 drawn, Aston Villa won 3. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (9%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Bournemouth attack scores 252% more than average, against Aston Villa defence, which lets in 71% fewer than average: 2.04 goals (an average side here: 1.99)
• Aston Villa attack scores 239% more than average, against Bournemouth defence, which lets in 71% fewer than average: 1.64 goals (an average side here: 1.67)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Bournemouth 2.10, Aston Villa 1.58.

Ratings from 123 matches for Bournemouth and 125 for Aston Villa, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Bournemouth score 3 a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Aston Villa win 4 corners a game — 27th percentile in this competition.
• Bournemouth have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.9

Bournemouth 5.9 · Aston Villa 5.0

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (2250 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 9.5%
2. 2–1 8.8%
3. 2–2 6.9%
4. 1–2 6.6%
5. 3–1 6.1%
6. 2–0 5.6%
7. 3–2 4.9%
8. 1–0 4.2%