Holstein Kiel vs 1899 Hoffenheim match stats & report

Holstein Kiel vs 1899 Hoffenheim match statistics

• 44% Ball possession 56%
• 1.11 Expected goals (xG) 0.86
• 16 Total shots 13
• 5 Shots on target 4
• 11 Shots off target 7
• 0 Blocked shots 2
• 12 Shots inside the box 6
• 6 Corners 10
• 19 Fouls 17
• 0 Offsides 5
• 3 Yellow cards 5
• 0 Red cards 0
• 484 Passes 615
• 3 Goalkeeper saves 4

Goals and cards

1. 11' Goal A. Hlozek 1899 Hoffenheim
2. 23' Goal A. Kaprálik (assist H. Sekine) Holstein Kiel
3. 41' Yellow card A. Hlozek 1899 Hoffenheim
4. 42' Yellow card I. Nekić Holstein Kiel
5. 45+7' Yellow card W. Burger 1899 Hoffenheim
6. 68' Yellow card L. Avdullahu 1899 Hoffenheim
7. 74' Yellow card Holstein Kiel
8. 76' Yellow card O. Baumann 1899 Hoffenheim
9. 105+2' Yellow card K. Machida 1899 Hoffenheim
10. 106' Yellow card A. Kaprálik Holstein Kiel
11. 117' Yellow card G. Kvilitaia Holstein Kiel

Penalty shoot-out: 4–3

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects 1899 Hoffenheim to score about 0.8 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 3 meetings: Holstein Kiel won 0, 0 drawn, 1899 Hoffenheim won 3. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-2 (9%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Holstein Kiel has a new coach, T. Walter, for its last 9 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Holstein Kiel attack scores 61% more than average, against 1899 Hoffenheim defence, which lets in 56% fewer than average: 1.57 goals (an average side here: 2.21)
• 1899 Hoffenheim attack scores 146% more than average, against Holstein Kiel defence, which lets in 53% fewer than average: 2.20 goals (an average side here: 1.90)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Holstein Kiel 1.48, 1899 Hoffenheim 2.29.

Ratings from 107 matches for Holstein Kiel and 106 for 1899 Hoffenheim, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Both teams have scored in 8 of Holstein Kiel’s last 10.
• 1899 Hoffenheim win 7.9 corners a game — 80th percentile in this competition.
• 1899 Hoffenheim score 1.5 a game — 28th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.7

Holstein Kiel 5.0 · 1899 Hoffenheim 5.7

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (361 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–2 8.9%
2. 1–1 8.8%
3. 1–3 6.8%
4. 2–2 6.6%
5. 0–2 6.0%
6. 2–1 5.8%
7. 2–3 5.1%
8. 0–3 4.6%