Bayern München vs 1. FC Magdeburg match stats & report

Bayern München vs 1. FC Magdeburg match statistics

• 63% Ball possession 37%
• 3.99 Expected goals (xG) 0.66
• 19 Total shots 9
• 8 Shots on target 2
• 9 Shots off target 7
• 2 Blocked shots 0
• 12 Shots inside the box 8
• 6 Corners 0
• 7 Fouls 6
• 0 Offsides 2
• 2 Yellow cards 3
• 0 Red cards 0
• 746 Passes 429
• 1 Goalkeeper saves 2

Goals and cards

1. 10' Goal M. Olise (assist I. Saibari) Bayern München
2. 15' Goal M. Żukowski (assist F. Chávez) 1. FC Magdeburg
3. 21' Goal I. Saibari (assist M. Olise) Bayern München
4. 50' Penalty scored M. Olise Bayern München
5. 70' Goal A. Davies (assist L. Karl) Bayern München
6. 73' Goal N. Brown (assist A. Davies) Bayern München
7. 80' Yellow card F. Michel 1. FC Magdeburg
8. 84' Yellow card N. Brown Bayern München
9. 86' Yellow card A. MacNulty 1. FC Magdeburg
10. 89' Yellow card A. Pavlovic Bayern München
11. 90+1' Yellow card P. Nadjombe 1. FC Magdeburg
12. 90+3' Goal David Daiber (assist J. Stanisic) Bayern München

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Bayern München to score about 3.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 16% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 15283 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 4-0 (8%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• 1. FC Magdeburg has a new coach, P. Sander, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Bayern München attack scores 265% more than average, against 1. FC Magdeburg defence, which lets in 49% fewer than average: 4.14 goals (an average side here: 2.21)
• 1. FC Magdeburg attack scores 90% more than average, against Bayern München defence, which lets in 67% fewer than average: 1.21 goals (an average side here: 1.90)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Bayern München 4.40, 1. FC Magdeburg 0.90.

Ratings from 111 matches for Bayern München and 107 for 1. FC Magdeburg, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Bayern München score 4.1 a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• 1. FC Magdeburg win 2 corners a game — 6th percentile in this competition.
• 1. FC Magdeburg score 2.2 a game — 75th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.4

Bayern München 6.5 · 1. FC Magdeburg 3.9

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (361 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 4–0 7.8%
2. 3–0 7.1%
3. 4–1 7.0%
4. 5–0 7.0%
5. 3–1 6.3%
6. 5–1 6.2%
7. 6–0 5.2%
8. 2–0 4.8%