Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg match stats & report

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg match statistics

• 60% Ball possession 40%
• 3.11 Expected goals (xG) 1.02
• 25 Total shots 5
• 10 Shots on target 3
• 7 Shots off target 0
• 8 Blocked shots 2
• 19 Shots inside the box 2
• 13 Corners 3
• 10 Fouls 8
• 2 Offsides 0
• 2 Yellow cards 1
• 0 Red cards 0
• 613 Passes 424
• 1 Goalkeeper saves 5

Goals and cards

1. 13' Goal Rafael Lubach (assist W. Bøving) 1. FC Nürnberg
2. 30' Goal S. Haugen (assist W. Bøving) 1. FC Nürnberg
3. 41' Goal E. Tapsoba (assist Aleix García) Bayer Leverkusen
4. 49' Goal E. Tapsoba Bayer Leverkusen
5. 70' Penalty scored P. Schick Bayer Leverkusen
6. 73' Yellow card E. Fernández Bayer Leverkusen
7. 78' Goal J. Hofmann (assist Aleix García) Bayer Leverkusen
8. 81' Yellow card G. Masouras 1. FC Nürnberg
9. 86' Yellow card Lucas Vázquez Bayer Leverkusen
10. 89' Goal Lucas Vázquez Bayer Leverkusen

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Bayer Leverkusen to score about 2.3 more and playing at home is worth roughly 16% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 15283 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 3-0 (8%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Bayer Leverkusen attack scores 181% more than average, against 1. FC Nürnberg defence, which lets in 51% fewer than average: 3.04 goals (an average side here: 2.21)
• 1. FC Nürnberg attack scores 77% more than average, against Bayer Leverkusen defence, which lets in 64% fewer than average: 1.21 goals (an average side here: 1.90)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Bayer Leverkusen 3.26, 1. FC Nürnberg 0.99.

Ratings from 116 matches for Bayer Leverkusen and 105 for 1. FC Nürnberg, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Bayer Leverkusen win 9 corners a game — 98th percentile in this competition.
• 1. FC Nürnberg score 3.1 a game — 94th percentile in this competition.
• Bayer Leverkusen score 2.7 a game — 91st percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 3–0 8.2%
2. 3–1 8.2%
3. 2–0 7.6%
4. 2–1 7.5%
5. 4–0 6.7%
6. 4–1 6.7%
7. 1–1 5.2%
8. 5–0 4.4%