Gimnástica Torrelavega vs UD Ourense result
3–1 After extra time
Gimnástica Torrelavega stats & fixtures · UD Ourense stats & fixtures
Gimnástica Torrelavega beat UD Ourense 3–1 in the Copa del Rey (Round of 128) on 29 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Gimnástica Torrelavega 35%, the draw 32% and UD Ourense 33%.
Goals and cards
- 5' Yellow card Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 10' Goal J. L. Friaza Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 24' Yellow card Varo UD Ourense
- 40' Yellow card D. Ferreiro UD Ourense
- 47' Red card Varo UD Ourense
- 62' Yellow card T. Asiku Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 63' Yellow card Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 64' Yellow card UD Ourense
- 72' Yellow card M. Gandara Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 88' Yellow card D. Ferreiro UD Ourense
- 88' Red card D. Ferreiro UD Ourense
- 89' Yellow card B. Ademan Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 90+1' Yellow card P. Bassa Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 90+3' Goal J. Labrada UD Ourense
- 96' Goal T. Asiku Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 100' Yellow card Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 115' Yellow card Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 115' Goal A. Gomez Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 118' Yellow card UD Ourense
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Missed: double chance Gimnástica Torrelavega or UD Ourense, 68% before kick-off, settled on 1–1 after 90 minutes
- 35%Gimnástica Torrelavega fair odds 2.82
- 32%Draw fair odds 3.16
- 33%UD Ourense fair odds 3.04
Most likely score 1-1 (14.9%)
Why the Ghost says this
The two sides are expected to score about the same and playing at home is worth roughly 32% in this competition.
High confidence — Fitted on 26747 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Attack 1.05 · Defence 0.86
Last five: LLDLD, scored 5, conceded 13
UD Ourense
Attack 1.00 · Defence 0.65
Last five: LLWDD, scored 2, conceded 6
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (15%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Gimnástica Torrelavega attack scores 5% more than average, against UD Ourense defence, which lets in 35% fewer than average: 1.18 goals (an average side here: 1.74)
- UD Ourense attack scores about the average, against Gimnástica Torrelavega defence, which lets in 14% fewer than average: 1.14 goals (an average side here: 1.32)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Gimnástica Torrelavega 1.19, UD Ourense 1.13.
Ratings from 101 matches for Gimnástica Torrelavega and 111 for UD Ourense, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Gimnástica Torrelavega score 1.9 a game — 80th percentile in this competition.
- UD Ourense score 0.8 a game — 24th percentile in this competition.
- UD Ourense have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 88% | 1.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.45 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 4.89 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9% | 11.65 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 12% | 8.65 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31% | 3.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 80% | 1.26 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 91% | 1.09 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| Both teams to score: No | 51% | 1.95 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.9%
- 0–0 11.6%
- 1–0 10.0%
- 0–1 9.4%
- 2–1 7.8%
- 1–2 7.5%
- 2–0 6.9%
- 0–2 6.3%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Gimnástica Torrelavega at home
5–2–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.9 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
UD Ourense away
2–3–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.6 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 86% | 1.16 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 84% | 1.19 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 69% | 1.44 |
| Home/Away double chance | 68% | 1.46 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 68% | 1.48 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 67% | 1.49 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 65% | 1.55 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 65% | 1.55 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 35% | 2.82 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 33% | 3.01 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 33% | 3.04 |
| Home clean sheet | 32% | 3.10 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 31% | 3.20 |
| Away clean sheet | 31% | 3.27 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 16% | 6.37 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 14% | 7.10 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 12% | 8.52 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 11% | 9.41 |