Reddis vs Barakaldo prediction & stats
Reddis take on Barakaldo in the Copa del Rey (Round of 128) on 4 November 2026. The Ghost makes Barakaldo favourites at 37%, with the draw at 32%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 14.9%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams scoring at 49%.
Reddis vs Barakaldo prediction
The Ghost: Barakaldo or a draw, 69%; the call made for the original date was voided
- 31%Reddis fair odds 3.19
- 32%Draw fair odds 3.17
- 37%Barakaldo fair odds 2.70
Most likely score 1-1 (14.9%)
Why the Ghost says this
The two sides are expected to score about the same.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Reddis
Attack 1.17 · Defence 0.68
Last five: LDDWL, scored 7, conceded 9
Barakaldo
Attack 1.36 · Defence 0.55
Last five: DDWLD, scored 3, conceded 2
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (15%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
- Barakaldo has a new coach, Imanol de la Sota Aberasturi, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Reddis attack scores 17% more than average, against Barakaldo defence, which lets in 45% fewer than average: 1.12 goals (an average side here: 1.73)
- Barakaldo attack scores 36% more than average, against Reddis defence, which lets in 32% fewer than average: 1.21 goals (an average side here: 1.31)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Reddis 1.10, Barakaldo 1.22.
Ratings from 107 matches for Reddis and 116 for Barakaldo, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Barakaldo score 0.5 a game — 13th percentile in this competition.
- Reddis score 1 a game — 20th percentile in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in 2 of Barakaldo’s last 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 88% | 1.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.44 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 4.88 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9% | 11.58 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 12% | 8.68 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31% | 3.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 79% | 1.26 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 91% | 1.09 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| Both teams to score: No | 51% | 1.95 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.9%
- 0–0 11.5%
- 0–1 10.2%
- 1–0 9.1%
- 1–2 8.0%
- 0–2 7.3%
- 2–1 7.3%
- 2–0 6.0%
Form guide
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 83% | 1.20 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 70% | 1.42 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 69% | 1.46 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 69% | 1.46 |
| Home/Away double chance | 68% | 1.46 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 67% | 1.50 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 63% | 1.59 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 63% | 1.59 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 37% | 2.70 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 34% | 2.90 |
| Away clean sheet | 33% | 3.01 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 31% | 3.19 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 30% | 3.31 |
| Home clean sheet | 30% | 3.38 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 17% | 5.96 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 13% | 7.61 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 12% | 8.02 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 10% | 9.99 |