Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena prediction & stats

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and playing at home is worth roughly 32% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 26955 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (15%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Deportiva Minera has a new coach, Pepe Aguilar, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• FC Cartagena has a new coach, Inigo Velez, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Deportiva Minera attack scores 27% more than average, against FC Cartagena defence, which lets in 45% fewer than average: 1.20 goals (an average side here: 1.73)
• FC Cartagena attack scores 30% more than average, against Deportiva Minera defence, which lets in 39% fewer than average: 1.04 goals (an average side here: 1.31)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Deportiva Minera 1.23, FC Cartagena 1.02.

Ratings from 107 matches for Deportiva Minera and 126 for FC Cartagena, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• FC Cartagena have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Deportiva Minera have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.
• Both teams have scored in 3 of Deportiva Minera’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 14.9%
2. 0–0 12.3%
3. 1–0 11.3%
4. 0–1 9.1%
5. 2–1 8.1%
6. 2–0 8.0%
7. 1–2 6.7%
8. 0–2 5.5%