Campobasso FC vs Latina result

Goals and cards

1. 22' Goal L. Carfora Campobasso FC
2. 27' Yellow card Latina
3. 82' Yellow card L. Carfora Campobasso FC
4. 87' Yellow card R. Fogliata Campobasso FC
5. 88' Yellow card Campobasso FC
6. 89' Goal A. Bifulco Campobasso FC

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Campobasso FC to score about 0.4 more and playing at home is worth roughly 21% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 14855 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.21× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Campobasso FC has a new coach, Devis Mangia, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Latina has a new coach, Gennaro Volpe, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Campobasso FC attack scores 9% more than average, against Latina defence, which lets in 19% fewer than average: 1.34 goals (an average side here: 1.52)
• Latina attack scores 6% less than average, against Campobasso FC defence, which lets in 13% fewer than average: 1.02 goals (an average side here: 1.25)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Campobasso FC 1.39, Latina 0.97.

Ratings from 123 matches for Campobasso FC and 126 for Latina, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Latina have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Latina score 1.5 a game — 85th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 8 of Latina’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 14.4%
2. 1–0 11.4%
3. 0–0 11.1%
4. 2–0 9.1%
5. 2–1 8.8%
6. 0–1 7.5%
7. 1–2 6.2%
8. 0–2 4.5%