Lask Linz vs Ried result

Goals and cards

1. 37' Goal Y. Maart (assist M. Rasner) Ried
2. 48' Goal I. Kiese Thelin Ried
3. 51' Goal Alemão (assist K. Jørgensen) Lask Linz
4. 77' Goal Y. Maart (assist S. Schwab) Ried
5. 84' Goal R. Ljubičić Lask Linz
6. 89' Yellow card S. Adeniran Lask Linz
7. 90+3' Goal X. Mbuyamba (assist S. Horvath) Lask Linz
8. 111' Goal M. Usor (assist A. Andrade) Lask Linz
9. 112' Yellow card M. Usor Lask Linz
10. 117' Yellow card F. Flecker Lask Linz
11. 117' Yellow card L. Malicsek Ried
12. 117' Yellow card P. Pomer Ried
13. 117' Yellow card K. Danek Lask Linz
14. 120' Goal S. Adeniran (assist M. Usor) Lask Linz
15. 120+2' Goal P. Pomer Ried

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Lask Linz to score about 1.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 24% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 8892 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.24× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 5 meetings: Lask Linz won 2, 2 drawn, Ried won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 2-1 (9%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Lask Linz attack scores 212% more than average, against Ried defence, which lets in 62% fewer than average: 2.57 goals (an average side here: 2.13)
• Ried attack scores 130% more than average, against Lask Linz defence, which lets in 65% fewer than average: 1.40 goals (an average side here: 1.72)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Lask Linz 2.72, Ried 1.24.

Ratings from 113 matches for Lask Linz and 102 for Ried, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Ried have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Both teams have scored in 9 of Ried’s last 10.
• Lask Linz score 2.5 a game — 89th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.0

Lask Linz 6.6 · Ried 3.3

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (190 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–1 8.7%
2. 3–1 7.9%
3. 1–1 7.2%
4. 2–0 7.0%
5. 3–0 6.4%
6. 2–2 5.4%
7. 4–1 5.4%
8. 3–2 4.9%