Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Desenzano Calvina result

Goals and cards

1. 21' Yellow card L. Agosti Dolomiti Bellunesi
2. 56' Yellow card T. Panelli Desenzano Calvina
3. 61' Yellow card M. Morreale Dolomiti Bellunesi
4. 68' Yellow card K. Casanova Dolomiti Bellunesi
5. 90+6' Goal Desenzano Calvina

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Desenzano Calvina to score about 0.3 more.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 14855 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.21× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (15%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Dolomiti Bellunesi attack scores 8% less than average, against Desenzano Calvina defence, which lets in 30% fewer than average: 0.98 goals (an average side here: 1.52)
• Desenzano Calvina attack scores 6% less than average, against Dolomiti Bellunesi defence, which lets in 4% more than average: 1.23 goals (an average side here: 1.25)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Dolomiti Bellunesi 0.94, Desenzano Calvina 1.26.

Ratings from 118 matches for Dolomiti Bellunesi and 120 for Desenzano Calvina, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Dolomiti Bellunesi score 0.4 a game — 2nd percentile in this competition.
• Desenzano Calvina score 0.8 a game — 25th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 3 of Dolomiti Bellunesi’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 14.8%
2. 0–0 12.8%
3. 0–1 12.3%
4. 0–2 8.8%
5. 1–0 8.7%
6. 1–2 8.3%
7. 2–1 6.2%
8. 2–0 4.9%