Union Brescia vs Cittadella result

Goals and cards

1. 24' Yellow card E. Anastasia Cittadella
2. 27' Yellow card D. Di Molfetta Union Brescia
3. 35' Yellow card M. Sangalli Cittadella
4. 39' Goal E. Ignatov Cittadella
5. 41' Goal D. Di Molfetta Union Brescia
6. 62' Goal A. Redolfi Cittadella
7. 90+2' Yellow card B. Boci Union Brescia

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Union Brescia to score about 0.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 21% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 14855 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.21× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Cittadella has a new coach, Roberto Musso, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Union Brescia attack scores 22% more than average, against Cittadella defence, which lets in 28% fewer than average: 1.34 goals (an average side here: 1.52)
• Cittadella attack scores 16% more than average, against Union Brescia defence, which lets in 36% fewer than average: 0.93 goals (an average side here: 1.25)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Union Brescia 1.40, Cittadella 0.87.

Ratings from 61 matches for Union Brescia and 122 for Cittadella, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Union Brescia score 2 a game — 97th percentile in this competition.
• Cittadella score 1.3 a game — 77th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of Union Brescia’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 14.2%
2. 1–0 12.8%
3. 0–0 12.0%
4. 2–0 10.1%
5. 2–1 8.8%
6. 0–1 7.4%
7. 1–2 5.5%
8. 3–0 4.7%