Athletic Carpi vs Ravenna result

Goals and cards

1. 38' Goal C. Spini Ravenna
2. 45' Goal C. Spini Ravenna
3. 72' Yellow card F. Desole Athletic Carpi
4. 79' Goal D. Zagnoni Athletic Carpi
5. 83' Yellow card M. Solini Ravenna
6. 86' Goal T. Carcani Athletic Carpi
7. 86' Yellow card T. Carcani Athletic Carpi
8. 88' Goal A. Sall Athletic Carpi
9. 90+6' Goal G. Donati Ravenna

Penalty shoot-out: 4–2

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Ravenna to score about 0.7 more.

High confidence — Fitted on 14855 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.21× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Athletic Carpi has a new coach, Stefano Cassani, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Athletic Carpi attack scores about the average, against Ravenna defence, which lets in 34% fewer than average: 1.02 goals (an average side here: 1.52)
• Ravenna attack scores 25% more than average, against Athletic Carpi defence, which lets in about the average: 1.56 goals (an average side here: 1.25)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Athletic Carpi 0.94, Ravenna 1.64.

Ratings from 117 matches for Athletic Carpi and 118 for Ravenna, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Ravenna score 1.7 a game — 93rd percentile in this competition.
• Athletic Carpi have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Athletic Carpi score 1.7 a game — 83rd percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 13.2%
2. 0–1 10.9%
3. 0–2 10.1%
4. 1–2 9.6%
5. 0–0 9.1%
6. 1–0 5.6%
7. 0–3 5.5%
8. 2–1 5.5%