CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Cluj result

Goals and cards

1. 20' Goal Marius Ștefănescu Universitatea Cluj
2. 31' Yellow card CFR 1907 Cluj
3. 32' Penalty scored J. Lukic Universitatea Cluj
4. 45+3' Yellow card CFR 1907 Cluj
5. 45+6' Goal Sergiu Buş CFR 1907 Cluj
6. 75' Goal J. Lukic Universitatea Cluj

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects CFR 1907 Cluj to score about 0.4 more and playing at home is worth roughly 27% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.27× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: CFR 1907 Cluj won 3, 1 drawn, Universitatea Cluj won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (10%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• CFR 1907 Cluj attack scores 141% more than average, against Universitatea Cluj defence, which lets in 64% fewer than average: 1.93 goals (an average side here: 2.22)
• Universitatea Cluj attack scores 142% more than average, against CFR 1907 Cluj defence, which lets in 62% fewer than average: 1.59 goals (an average side here: 1.75)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on CFR 1907 Cluj 1.98, Universitatea Cluj 1.54.

Ratings from 106 matches for CFR 1907 Cluj and 103 for Universitatea Cluj, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• 4 of the last 6 meetings went over 2.5 goals.
• CFR 1907 Cluj win 5.1 corners a game — 37th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.5

CFR 1907 Cluj 5.6 · Universitatea Cluj 3.9

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (309 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 10.2%
2. 2–1 8.9%
3. 1–2 6.9%
4. 2–2 6.9%
5. 3–1 5.9%
6. 2–0 5.8%
7. 1–0 4.7%
8. 3–2 4.5%