Numancia vs Oviedo match stats & report
3–3 After penalties
Numancia drew with Oviedo 3–3 in the Copa del Rey (Round of 128) on 29 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Numancia 22%, the draw 32% and Oviedo 46%.
Numancia vs Oviedo match statistics
- 4 Yellow cards 1
- 0 Red cards 0
Goals and cards
- 8' Yellow card César Moreno Numancia
- 11' Yellow card Pablo Cortés Numancia
- 42' Goal Aitor Aranzabe Numancia
- 52' Yellow card Luis Roldán Numancia
- 57' Goal Iker León Gutiérrez Numancia
- 59' Yellow card Borja López Numancia
- 74' Goal A. Ișfan Oviedo
- 76' Goal Mikel Goti Oviedo
- 86' Goal Jonathan González Numancia
- 89' Goal Mikel Goti Oviedo
- 92' Yellow card Oviedo
- 118' Yellow card A. Ișfan Oviedo
- 120' Yellow card Víctor Charlez Numancia
Penalty shoot-out: 4–2
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Missed: Oviedo to win, 46% before kick-off
- 22%Numancia fair odds 4.49
- 32%Draw fair odds 3.16
- 46%Oviedo fair odds 2.17
Most likely score 1-1 (14.5%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Oviedo to score about 0.5 more.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 26795 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Numancia
Attack 1.15 · Defence 0.57
Last five: LDDDW, scored 4, conceded 4
Oviedo
Attack 1.69 · Defence 0.45
Last five: DWWLW, scored 10, conceded 8
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
- Numancia has a new coach, Angel Rodriguez, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Numancia attack scores 15% more than average, against Oviedo defence, which lets in 55% fewer than average: 0.90 goals (an average side here: 1.74)
- Oviedo attack scores 69% more than average, against Numancia defence, which lets in 43% fewer than average: 1.27 goals (an average side here: 1.32)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Numancia 0.85, Oviedo 1.32.
Ratings from 113 matches for Numancia and 133 for Oviedo, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Oviedo score 1.4 a game — 69th percentile in this competition.
- Oviedo have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 87% | 1.15 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.71 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 5.74 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 7% | 14.50 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 13% | 7.62 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 35% | 2.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 83% | 1.21 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 44% | 2.30 |
| Both teams to score: No | 56% | 1.77 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.5%
- 0–1 13.5%
- 0–0 13.1%
- 0–2 10.0%
- 1–2 8.5%
- 1–0 8.0%
- 2–1 5.4%
- 0–3 4.4%
Team news & lineups
Numancia
Bench Víctor Charlez , Jean Lauture , Jorge Domínguez , Moustapha Gning , Jonathan González , Rafa Roldán , Iván Martínez , Marcos Fernández , Christian Matesanz , Jaime Fernández, Amin Bouzaig , Hugo Torondel García
Oviedo
Bench Mikel Goti , Pablo Sáenz , A. Ișfan , José Luis Morales , Enzo Cazorla , Alberto Reina , Mate Sauri , Xavi Vicente Jimenez, Nacho Vidal , Dani Calvo , Enzo Perez , I. Chaira
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Numancia at home
5–3–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.5 per game
- Conceded
- 1.1 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Oviedo away
3–2–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.4 per game
- Conceded
- 2.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 4.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.4 per game
36% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 92% | 1.08 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 78% | 1.29 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 78% | 1.29 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 78% | 1.29 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 73% | 1.36 |
| Home/Away double chance | 68% | 1.46 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 57% | 1.75 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 54% | 1.86 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 54% | 1.86 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 46% | 2.17 |
| Away clean sheet | 43% | 2.33 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 38% | 2.63 |
| Home clean sheet | 27% | 3.75 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 22% | 4.45 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 22% | 4.49 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 21% | 4.82 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 15% | 6.76 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 8% | 12.95 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 5% | 18.46 |