Covadonga vs Valladolid result

Goals and cards

1. 11' Yellow card Covadonga
2. 12' Penalty scored R. Duiven Valladolid
3. 26' Yellow card R. Duiven Valladolid
4. 45' Yellow card Álex Balboa Valladolid
5. 45+1' Yellow card Covadonga
6. 70' Yellow card T. Asiku Covadonga
7. 89' Yellow card Covadonga

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Valladolid to score about 1.3 more.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.00× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-2 (14%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Covadonga has a new coach, David González, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Covadonga attack scores 10% more than average, against Valladolid defence, which lets in 43% fewer than average: 0.82 goals (an average side here: 1.32)
• Valladolid attack scores 55% more than average, against Covadonga defence, which lets in 10% fewer than average: 1.84 goals (an average side here: 1.32)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Covadonga 0.69, Valladolid 1.97.

Ratings from 108 matches for Covadonga and 126 for Valladolid, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Covadonga score 2.4 a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
• Valladolid have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.
• Valladolid win 4.5 corners a game — 66th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–2 13.6%
2. 0–1 12.6%
3. 1–1 10.7%
4. 1–2 9.3%
5. 0–3 9.0%
6. 0–0 8.3%
7. 1–3 6.1%
8. 0–4 4.4%