Badajoz vs Tenerife prediction & stats
Badajoz take on Tenerife in the Copa del Rey (Round of 128) on 4 November 2026. The Ghost makes Tenerife favourites at 51%, with the draw at 33%. The likeliest score is 0–1, at 18.1%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 29% and both teams scoring at 34%.
Badajoz vs Tenerife prediction
The Ghost: Tenerife to win, 51%; the call made for the original date was voided
- 16%Badajoz fair odds 6.22
- 33%Draw fair odds 3.06
- 51%Tenerife fair odds 1.95
Most likely score 0-1 (18.1%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Tenerife to score about 0.7 more. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 26955 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Badajoz
Attack 1.11 · Defence 0.58
Last five: DDWWD, scored 5, conceded 3
Tenerife
Attack 1.58 · Defence 0.46
Last five: DDDDL, scored 7, conceded 8
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.00× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 0-1 (18%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
- Tenerife has a new coach, Álvaro, for its last 6 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Badajoz attack scores 11% more than average, against Tenerife defence, which lets in 54% fewer than average: 0.67 goals (an average side here: 1.31)
- Tenerife attack scores 58% more than average, against Badajoz defence, which lets in 42% fewer than average: 1.19 goals (an average side here: 1.31)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Badajoz 0.60, Tenerife 1.27.
Ratings from 111 matches for Badajoz and 129 for Tenerife, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Tenerife score 1.7 a game — 87th percentile in this competition.
- Tenerife have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
- Both teams have scored in 8 of Tenerife’s last 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 83% | 1.21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 3.49 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 8.38 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 4% | 24.25 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 17% | 5.87 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 43% | 2.33 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 88% | 1.14 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 34% | 2.95 |
| Both teams to score: No | 66% | 1.51 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 0–1 18.1%
- 0–0 17.0%
- 1–1 13.3%
- 0–2 12.4%
- 1–0 7.8%
- 1–2 7.4%
- 0–3 5.2%
- 2–1 3.5%
Team news & lineups
Badajoz
No lineup published yet.
Tenerife
- 18 Enric Gallego Attacker
- 1 Dani Martín Goalkeeper
- 2 David Rodríguez Defender
- 12 A. Landázuri Defender
- 17 C. Gomis Attacker
- 10 Nacho Gil Midfielder
- 6 Juanjo Midfielder
- 27 N. Viereck Defender
- 11 Noel López Midfielder
- 3 R. Jureškin Defender
- 16 Jesús Álvarez Midfielder
Form guide
Badajoz at home
7–2–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 0.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Tenerife away
2–4–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 1.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 4.7 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.8 per game
14% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 96% | 1.05 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 84% | 1.19 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 84% | 1.19 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 75% | 1.33 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 72% | 1.39 |
| Home/Away double chance | 67% | 1.49 |
| Away clean sheet | 55% | 1.82 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 51% | 1.95 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 49% | 2.05 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 49% | 2.05 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 45% | 2.22 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 36% | 2.77 |
| Home clean sheet | 28% | 3.54 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 25% | 4.05 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 16% | 6.22 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 13% | 7.41 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 12% | 8.22 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 4% | 23.08 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 2% | 43.42 |