Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés prediction & stats
Amorebieta stats & fixtures · UD Logroñés stats & fixtures
Amorebieta take on UD Logroñés in the Copa del Rey (Round of 128) on 4 November 2026. The Ghost makes UD Logroñés favourites at 40%, with the draw at 31%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 14.7%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams scoring at 49%.
Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés prediction
The Ghost: UD Logroñés or a draw, 71%; the call made for the original date was voided
- 29%Amorebieta fair odds 3.44
- 31%Draw fair odds 3.21
- 40%UD Logroñés fair odds 2.51
Most likely score 1-1 (14.7%)
Why the Ghost says this
The two sides are expected to score about the same.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 26955 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Amorebieta
Attack 1.11 · Defence 0.62
Last five: WWWLW, scored 7, conceded 4
UD Logroñés
Attack 1.56 · Defence 0.57
Last five: LWDLW, scored 7, conceded 7
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (15%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
- Amorebieta has a new coach, Natxo González, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
- UD Logroñés has a new coach, Sergio Rodríguez, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Amorebieta attack scores 11% more than average, against UD Logroñés defence, which lets in 43% fewer than average: 1.09 goals (an average side here: 1.73)
- UD Logroñés attack scores 56% more than average, against Amorebieta defence, which lets in 38% fewer than average: 1.26 goals (an average side here: 1.31)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Amorebieta 1.07, UD Logroñés 1.29.
Ratings from 113 matches for Amorebieta and 115 for UD Logroñés, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- UD Logroñés score 2.1 a game — 97th percentile in this competition.
- Amorebieta score 1.1 a game — 27th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 89% | 1.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.39 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 4.72 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9% | 11.08 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 11% | 8.94 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30% | 3.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| Both teams to score: No | 51% | 1.97 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.7%
- 0–0 11.2%
- 0–1 10.5%
- 1–0 8.4%
- 1–2 8.4%
- 0–2 7.9%
- 2–1 7.0%
- 2–0 5.4%
Form guide
Amorebieta at home
4–2–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
UD Logroñés away
7–1–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 88% | 1.13 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 81% | 1.23 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 72% | 1.38 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 71% | 1.41 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 71% | 1.41 |
| Home/Away double chance | 69% | 1.45 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 66% | 1.52 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 60% | 1.66 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 60% | 1.66 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 40% | 2.51 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 37% | 2.71 |
| Away clean sheet | 34% | 2.91 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 29% | 3.44 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 29% | 3.46 |
| Home clean sheet | 28% | 3.62 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 19% | 5.34 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 14% | 7.14 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 12% | 8.42 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 9% | 10.74 |