JOS Watergraafsmeer vs NAC Breda result
1–3 Full time
JOS Watergraafsmeer stats & fixtures · NAC Breda stats & fixtures
JOS Watergraafsmeer lost to NAC Breda 1–3 in the KNVB Beker (Round of 64) on 28 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave JOS Watergraafsmeer 10%, the draw 17% and NAC Breda 73%.
Goals and cards
- 17' Yellow card M. Bouchouari NAC Breda
- 19' Yellow card J. de Graaf JOS Watergraafsmeer
- 29' Goal G. Misehouy NAC Breda
- 39' Goal JOS Watergraafsmeer
- 45+2' Goal P. Gladon (assist M. Nassoh) NAC Breda
- 60' Yellow card M. Brouwers NAC Breda
- 64' Yellow card JOS Watergraafsmeer
- 73' Goal P. Reulen (assist B. Lucassen) NAC Breda
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: NAC Breda to win, 73% before kick-off
- 10%JOS Watergraafsmeer fair odds 9.57
- 17%Draw fair odds 5.92
- 73%NAC Breda fair odds 1.38
Most likely score 0-2 (9.1%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects NAC Breda to score about 1.7 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
JOS Watergraafsmeer
Attack 1.00 · Defence 0.99
Last five: DWLLD, scored 12, conceded 14
NAC Breda
Attack 1.32 · Defence 0.51
Last five: DWWDW, scored 10, conceded 5
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- JOS Watergraafsmeer has had 30 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 0-2 (9%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
- NAC Breda has a new coach, R. Kruijs, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- JOS Watergraafsmeer attack scores about the average, against NAC Breda defence, which lets in 49% fewer than average: 1.17 goals (an average side here: 2.30)
- NAC Breda attack scores 32% more than average, against JOS Watergraafsmeer defence, which lets in about the average: 2.53 goals (an average side here: 1.95)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on JOS Watergraafsmeer 0.99, NAC Breda 2.71.
Ratings from 12 matches for JOS Watergraafsmeer and 115 for NAC Breda, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- NAC Breda win 6 corners a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
- NAC Breda score 1.9 a game — 76th percentile in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in 7 of NAC Breda’s last 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.03 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 1.98 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 31% | 3.20 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 3% | 29.92 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11% | 9.28 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29% | 3.50 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| Both teams to score: No | 40% | 2.47 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 0–2 9.1%
- 1–2 9.0%
- 0–3 8.2%
- 1–3 8.1%
- 1–1 7.5%
- 0–1 5.8%
- 0–4 5.5%
- 1–4 5.5%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
JOS Watergraafsmeer at home
0–1–2 in 3 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 2.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 3
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Based on 3 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
NAC Breda away
6–2–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.9 per game
- Conceded
- 1.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 6.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 10.0 per game
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 96% | 1.04 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 93% | 1.07 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 90% | 1.12 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 90% | 1.12 |
| Home/Away double chance | 83% | 1.20 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 75% | 1.33 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 73% | 1.38 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 63% | 1.59 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 53% | 1.90 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 51% | 1.97 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 47% | 2.12 |
| Away clean sheet | 37% | 2.70 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 27% | 3.66 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 27% | 3.66 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 26% | 3.83 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 10% | 9.57 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 8% | 12.69 |
| Home clean sheet | 7% | 14.97 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 4% | 26.96 |