MVV vs Excelsior match stats & report
0–3 Full time
MVV lost to Excelsior 0–3 in the KNVB Beker (Round of 64) on 28 October 2026. MVV had 60% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave MVV 13%, the draw 20% and Excelsior 67%.
MVV vs Excelsior match statistics
- 60% Ball possession 40%
- 16 Total shots 8
- 6 Shots on target 5
- 6 Shots off target 1
- 4 Blocked shots 2
- 6 Shots inside the box 6
- 6 Corners 1
- 10 Fouls 11
- 1 Offsides 2
- 1 Yellow cards 0
- 521 Passes 358
- 81% Pass accuracy 75%
- 3 Goalkeeper saves 6
Goals and cards
- 8' Yellow card E. Sierra MVV
- 15' Goal Irakli Yegoian (assist S. van Gassel) Excelsior
- 60' Penalty scored Irakli Yegoian Excelsior
- 89' Goal A. Sliti Excelsior
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: Excelsior to win, 67% before kick-off
- 13%MVV fair odds 7.78
- 20%Draw fair odds 4.96
- 67%Excelsior fair odds 1.49
Most likely score 0-2 (10.1%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Excelsior to score about 1.4 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.
High confidence — Fitted on 5327 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
MVV
Attack 1.03 · Defence 0.71
Last five: DLLLW, scored 6, conceded 12
Excelsior
Attack 1.59 · Defence 0.47
Last five: LLLDL, scored 4, conceded 14
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 0-2 (10%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
- MVV has a new coach, A. Jonker, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- MVV attack scores 3% more than average, against Excelsior defence, which lets in 53% fewer than average: 1.11 goals (an average side here: 2.30)
- Excelsior attack scores 59% more than average, against MVV defence, which lets in 29% fewer than average: 2.19 goals (an average side here: 1.95)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on MVV 0.96, Excelsior 2.34.
Ratings from 119 matches for MVV and 117 for Excelsior, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Excelsior score 2.7 a game — 97th percentile in this competition.
- MVV score 1.1 a game — 18th percentile in this competition.
- MVV win 6 corners a game — 72nd percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 24% | 4.21 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5% | 20.97 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15% | 6.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.78 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| Both teams to score: No | 43% | 2.32 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 0–2 10.1%
- 1–2 9.7%
- 1–1 9.4%
- 0–3 7.9%
- 1–3 7.6%
- 0–1 7.5%
- 0–0 4.8%
- 2–2 4.7%
Team news & lineups
MVV
Bench O. Zimuangana , Victor Goffings , S. van der Heijden , Tristan Bomble , R. Klaasen , Mika Luijendijk , A. Amgar , M. Kuipers , Samy Moumni , Yanis Bourard
Excelsior
Bench Celton Biai , Giulliano Cairo , Osman Turay , K. Bos , Quinten Kraaivanger , Y. Finey , Á. Þorsteinsson , V. Sulzbacher , A. Sliti , N. Groen , D. Garden
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
MVV at home
3–2–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.1 per game
- Conceded
- 2.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 6.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.0 per game
Excelsior away
6–2–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.7 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 3.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.3 per game
15% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 95% | 1.05 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 90% | 1.11 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 87% | 1.15 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home/Away double chance | 80% | 1.25 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 68% | 1.48 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 67% | 1.49 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 62% | 1.62 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 55% | 1.83 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 45% | 2.21 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 41% | 2.42 |
| Away clean sheet | 38% | 2.62 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 33% | 3.03 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 33% | 3.03 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 25% | 4.00 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 13% | 7.78 |
| Home clean sheet | 10% | 10.36 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 7% | 13.62 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 5% | 21.81 |