Roskilde vs Aarhus result

Goals and cards

1. 14' Yellow card A. Maarup Roskilde
2. 43' Yellow card D. Grétarsson Aarhus
3. 52' Goal M. Veltz (assist M. Uhd) Roskilde
4. 67' Goal M. Solbakken (assist Frederik Emmery) Aarhus
5. 71' Goal T. Bech Aarhus

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Aarhus to score about 1.7 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 3839 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-2 (9%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Roskilde has a new coach, Kristoffer Johannsen, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Roskilde attack scores 85% more than average, against Aarhus defence, which lets in 72% fewer than average: 1.25 goals (an average side here: 2.43)
• Aarhus attack scores 198% more than average, against Roskilde defence, which lets in 58% fewer than average: 2.62 goals (an average side here: 2.07)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Roskilde 1.07, Aarhus 2.80.

Ratings from 105 matches for Roskilde and 113 for Aarhus, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Aarhus have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Roskilde score 2.3 a game — 94th percentile in this competition.
• Aarhus win 3.9 corners a game — 25th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–2 8.7%
2. 1–3 8.2%
3. 0–2 8.1%
4. 0–3 7.6%
5. 1–1 7.0%
6. 1–4 5.7%
7. 0–4 5.3%
8. 0–1 5.0%