PAOK vs AEK Athens FC result
3–1 Full time
PAOK stats & fixtures · AEK Athens FC stats & fixtures
PAOK beat AEK Athens FC 3–1 in the Cup (Greek Cup - 4) on 28 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave PAOK 47%, the draw 25% and AEK Athens FC 28%.
Goals and cards
- 8' Goal S. Banza (assist J. Kenny) PAOK
- 48' Yellow card Lovro Majer AEK Athens FC
- 50' Goal L. Jović (assist R. Marin) AEK Athens FC
- 70' Goal S. Shoretire (assist A. Živković) PAOK
- 76' Yellow card O. Zubkov AEK Athens FC
- 79' Goal C. Ndiaye PAOK
- 85' Yellow card G. Taylor PAOK
- 88' Yellow card D. Giannoulis PAOK
- 89' Yellow card PAOK
- 90+2' Yellow card Zini AEK Athens FC
- 90+4' Yellow card A. Brignoli AEK Athens FC
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: PAOK +1.5 handicap: not lose by 2+, 87% before kick-off
- 47%PAOK fair odds 2.11
- 25%Draw fair odds 4.03
- 28%AEK Athens FC fair odds 3.61
Most likely score 1-1 (11.0%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects PAOK to score about 0.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 36% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 5008 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
PAOK
Attack 3.20 · Defence 0.39
Last five: LWLWW, scored 8, conceded 7
AEK Athens FC
Attack 3.11 · Defence 0.35
Last five: WLLWW, scored 12, conceded 9
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.36× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 6 meetings: PAOK won 3, 2 drawn, AEK Athens FC won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (11%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- PAOK attack scores 220% more than average, against AEK Athens FC defence, which lets in 65% fewer than average: 1.84 goals (an average side here: 1.64)
- AEK Athens FC attack scores 211% more than average, against PAOK defence, which lets in 61% fewer than average: 1.48 goals (an average side here: 1.21)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on PAOK 1.90, AEK Athens FC 1.42.
Ratings from 117 matches for PAOK and 113 for AEK Athens FC, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Both teams have scored in 7 of AEK Athens FC’s last 10.
- 2 of the last 6 meetings went over 2.5 goals.
- AEK Athens FC have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.36 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 24% | 4.14 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5% | 20.52 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14% | 6.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35% | 2.82 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score: No | 34% | 2.93 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.6
PAOK 4.4 · AEK Athens FC 4.2
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 7.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 8.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 9.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 10.5 | 25% | 75% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (235 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 11.0%
- 2–1 9.3%
- 1–2 6.9%
- 2–2 6.6%
- 2–0 6.5%
- 3–1 5.9%
- 1–0 5.6%
- 0–0 4.9%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
PAOK at home
6–2–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 0.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 5.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.7 per game
29% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
AEK Athens FC away
3–3–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.2 per game
- Conceded
- 1.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 3.6 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.7 per game
25% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| PAOK v AEK Athens FC | 1–1 | |
| AEK Athens FC v PAOK | 3–0 | |
| PAOK v AEK Athens FC | 0–0 | |
| AEK Athens FC v PAOK | 0–2 | |
| PAOK v AEK Athens FC | 1–0 | |
| AEK Athens FC v PAOK | 2–3 |
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 85% | 1.18 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home/Away double chance | 75% | 1.33 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 73% | 1.38 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 72% | 1.38 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 72% | 1.38 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 57% | 1.77 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 53% | 1.90 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 53% | 1.90 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 47% | 2.11 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 42% | 2.40 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 30% | 3.38 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 28% | 3.61 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 27% | 3.65 |
| Home clean sheet | 24% | 4.15 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 17% | 5.80 |
| Away clean sheet | 15% | 6.68 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 13% | 7.72 |