Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir match stats & report

Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir match statistics

• 61% Ball possession 39%
• 13 Total shots 9
• 3 Shots on target 4
• 10 Shots off target 5
• 0 Blocked shots 0
• 5 Corners 2
• 3 Yellow cards 4
• 0 Red cards 0

Goals and cards

1. 19' Yellow card O. Chraibi Raja Casablanca
2. 36' Yellow card M. Doumbia Hassania Agadir
3. 56' Yellow card I. Riahi Hassania Agadir
4. 66' Goal A. Azri Hassania Agadir
5. 79' Yellow card M. Oyewusi Raja Casablanca
6. 79' Yellow card S. El Amrani Hassania Agadir
7. 81' Goal M. Oyewusi Raja Casablanca
8. 86' Yellow card M. Sahd Hassania Agadir
9. 90+2' Penalty missed A. Ennaffati Raja Casablanca
10. 90+5' Yellow card Marian Huja Raja Casablanca

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Raja Casablanca to score about 0.5 more and this competition has almost no home advantage.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 523 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.06× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Raja Casablanca’s last five moved its expected goals by +1.2%. In the numbers
• Hassania Agadir’s last five moved its expected goals by +4.6%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: Raja Casablanca won 4, 0 drawn, Hassania Agadir won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Hassania Agadir has had 11 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Hassania Agadir’s last five run against its rating: +1.5 a match scored, +0.6 conceded. Weighed as measured on 15,577 matches: +4.6% to its expected goals. In the numbers
• Raja Casablanca has a new coach, Paco Jémez, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Hassania Agadir has a new coach, H. Et-Tair, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Raja Casablanca attack scores 12% more than average, against Hassania Agadir defence, which lets in 9% more than average: 1.41 goals (an average side here: 1.16)
• Hassania Agadir attack scores 8% more than average, against Raja Casablanca defence, which lets in 25% fewer than average: 0.89 goals (an average side here: 1.09)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Raja Casablanca 1.44, Hassania Agadir 0.90.

Ratings from 63 matches for Raja Casablanca and 66 for Hassania Agadir, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Hassania Agadir score 1.5 a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Hassania Agadir win 1.8 corners a game — 12th percentile in this competition.
• Raja Casablanca score 1.4 a game — 69th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected cards: 4.6

Raja Casablanca 2.2 · Hassania Agadir 2.3

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (105 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 13.5%
2. 1–0 13.3%
3. 0–0 10.7%
4. 2–0 10.1%
5. 2–1 9.4%
6. 0–1 7.2%
7. 1–2 5.4%
8. 3–0 4.7%