Utebo vs Sabadell prediction & stats
Utebo take on Sabadell in the Copa del Rey (Round of 128) on 4 November 2026. The Ghost makes Sabadell favourites at 51%, with the draw at 29%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 13.7%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 47%.
Utebo vs Sabadell prediction
The Ghost: Sabadell to win, 51%; the call made for the original date was voided
- 20%Utebo fair odds 5.03
- 29%Draw fair odds 3.44
- 51%Sabadell fair odds 1.96
Most likely score 1-1 (13.7%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Sabadell to score about 0.7 more.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Utebo
Attack 1.17 · Defence 0.74
Last five: DDLDD, scored 4, conceded 5
Sabadell
Attack 1.49 · Defence 0.46
Last five: LDLWD, scored 4, conceded 5
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Utebo attack scores 17% more than average, against Sabadell defence, which lets in 54% fewer than average: 0.94 goals (an average side here: 1.73)
- Sabadell attack scores 49% more than average, against Utebo defence, which lets in 26% fewer than average: 1.45 goals (an average side here: 1.31)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Utebo 0.87, Sabadell 1.52.
Ratings from 110 matches for Utebo and 122 for Sabadell, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Sabadell win 5.3 corners a game — 89th percentile in this competition.
- Utebo score 1 a game — 20th percentile in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in 7 of Utebo’s last 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 89% | 1.12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.34 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 4.57 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9% | 10.60 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 11% | 9.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30% | 3.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| Both teams to score: No | 53% | 1.88 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.7%
- 0–1 12.4%
- 0–0 10.8%
- 0–2 10.6%
- 1–2 9.2%
- 1–0 6.4%
- 0–3 5.4%
- 2–1 5.2%
Form guide
Utebo at home
1–6–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.0 per game
- Conceded
- 1.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Sabadell away
2–5–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.9 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 5.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.7 per game
33% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 93% | 1.07 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 80% | 1.25 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 80% | 1.25 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 73% | 1.37 |
| Home/Away double chance | 71% | 1.41 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 58% | 1.72 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 51% | 1.96 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 49% | 2.04 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 49% | 2.04 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 45% | 2.23 |
| Away clean sheet | 42% | 2.38 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 27% | 3.68 |
| Home clean sheet | 22% | 4.58 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 22% | 4.64 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 20% | 5.03 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 20% | 5.09 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 7% | 14.39 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 6% | 17.37 |