Portugalete vs Real Unión prediction, stats & H2H

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and playing at home is worth roughly 32% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 26955 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last meeting: Portugalete won 0, 1 drawn, Real Unión won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Real Unión has a new coach, Albert Carbó, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Portugalete attack scores 20% more than average, against Real Unión defence, which lets in 26% fewer than average: 1.53 goals (an average side here: 1.73)
• Real Unión attack scores 57% more than average, against Portugalete defence, which lets in 26% fewer than average: 1.52 goals (an average side here: 1.31)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Portugalete 1.53, Real Unión 1.52.

Ratings from 114 matches for Portugalete and 110 for Real Unión, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Real Unión have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Real Unión score 1.6 a game — 80th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of Real Unión’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.5%
2. 2–1 8.4%
3. 1–2 8.4%
4. 2–2 6.4%
5. 0–0 6.2%
6. 1–0 5.8%
7. 0–1 5.8%
8. 2–0 5.5%