Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC result

Goals and cards

1. 7' Yellow card Poblense
2. 16' Yellow card AD Ceuta FC
3. 17' Goal S. Riveron Poblense
4. 35' Yellow card Carlos Hernández AD Ceuta FC
5. 39' Yellow card Poblense
6. 68' Yellow card AD Ceuta FC
7. 78' Goal Adrián Lapeña AD Ceuta FC
8. 90' Goal AD Ceuta FC
9. 90+2' Yellow card AD Ceuta FC

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (15%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Poblense attack scores about the average, against AD Ceuta FC defence, which lets in 38% fewer than average: 1.08 goals (an average side here: 1.74)
• AD Ceuta FC attack scores 55% more than average, against Poblense defence, which lets in 43% fewer than average: 1.16 goals (an average side here: 1.32)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Poblense 1.06, AD Ceuta FC 1.17.

Ratings from 110 matches for Poblense and 127 for AD Ceuta FC, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• AD Ceuta FC have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• AD Ceuta FC win 4.8 corners a game — 76th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of AD Ceuta FC’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 15.1%
2. 0–0 12.5%
3. 0–1 10.8%
4. 1–0 9.7%
5. 1–2 7.8%
6. 0–2 7.3%
7. 2–1 7.1%
8. 2–0 6.1%