Pamplona vs Eibar prediction & stats
Pamplona take on Eibar in the Copa del Rey (Round of 128) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Eibar favourites at 87%, with the draw at 10%. The likeliest score is 0–2, at 15.8%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 30%.
Pamplona vs Eibar prediction
The Ghost: the market disagrees with the result call; the call made for the original date was voided
- 2%Pamplona fair odds 44.21
- 10%Draw fair odds 9.74
- 87%Eibar fair odds 1.14
Most likely score 0-2 (15.8%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Eibar to score about 2.5 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 26955 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Pamplona
Attack 0.78 · Defence 1.11
Last five: LLWLD, scored 5, conceded 11
Eibar
Attack 1.86 · Defence 0.42
Last five: DLDLW, scored 6, conceded 8
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 0-2 (16%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
- Eibar has a new coach, Jokin Arambarri, for its last 6 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Pamplona attack scores 22% less than average, against Eibar defence, which lets in 58% fewer than average: 0.57 goals (an average side here: 1.73)
- Eibar attack scores 86% more than average, against Pamplona defence, which lets in 11% more than average: 2.71 goals (an average side here: 1.31)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Pamplona 0.38, Eibar 2.90.
Ratings from 109 matches for Pamplona and 132 for Eibar, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Eibar win 2.2 corners a game — 3rd percentile in this competition.
- Eibar score 1.6 a game — 80th percentile in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in 7 of Pamplona’s last 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.41 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 23% | 4.28 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4% | 23.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16% | 6.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.75 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 30% | 3.30 |
| Both teams to score: No | 70% | 1.44 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 0–2 15.8%
- 0–3 15.3%
- 0–4 11.1%
- 0–1 10.4%
- 0–5 6.4%
- 1–2 6.0%
- 1–3 5.8%
- 1–1 4.7%
Team news & lineups
Pamplona
No lineup published yet.
Eibar
- 13 Jon Mikel Goalkeeper
- 30 Aleix Garrido Midfielder
- 8 Ander Madariaga Midfielder
- 7 Malcom Adu Midfielder
- 24 Juan Bernat Defender
- 10 Jon Guruzeta Midfielder
- 22 Álvaro Rodríguez Defender
- 23 Anaitz Arbilla Defender
- 9 Jon Bautista Attacker
- 21 Iván Gil Midfielder
- 5 Peru Nolaskoain Defender
Form guide
Pamplona at home
4–5–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.5 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Eibar away
5–3–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.1 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 2.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.7 per game
6% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 79% | 1.27 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | >99% | 1.00 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 98% | 1.02 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 98% | 1.02 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 95% | 1.06 |
| Home/Away double chance | 90% | 1.11 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 87% | 1.14 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 70% | 1.43 |
| Away clean sheet | 68% | 1.46 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 55% | 1.80 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 32% | 3.17 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 30% | 3.32 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 13% | 7.98 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 13% | 7.98 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 6% | 17.87 |
| Home clean sheet | 5% | 18.18 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 2% | 44.21 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 1% | 146.23 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | <1% | 231.13 |